Modi’s Israel Visit: How Deepening Ties Reshape Pakistan’s Strategic Calculus
Islamabad, Pakistan – The symbolism was stark as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi disembarked in Tel Aviv on Wednesday, , for his second visit to Israel, and the first by any Indian prime minister since 2017. He received a red-carpet welcome from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a leader currently facing an International Criminal Court arrest warrant and overseeing a military campaign in Gaza widely condemned internationally.
The visit signaled a clear endorsement of India’s expanding strategic alignment with Israel, despite the ongoing controversy surrounding the conflict in Gaza. Days prior to Modi’s arrival, Netanyahu unveiled plans for a “hexagon of alliances”, envisioning a regional framework centered on India, alongside Greece, Cyprus, and unnamed states in Africa and Asia. The stated aim is to counter what Netanyahu termed “radical axes” – both Shia and emerging Sunni – in the region.
This proposed alliance, and India’s central role within it, has significant implications for the strategic calculations of Islamabad, according to analysts. In a region where Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a vocal critic of Israel, and where Saudi Arabia and Pakistan formalized a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement in September 2025, the contours of Tel Aviv’s perceived “axis” are becoming increasingly defined.
Expanding Defence and Technology Ties
The India-Israel relationship has experienced considerable acceleration since Modi’s initial visit in 2017. India is now Israel’s largest arms customer, and the current agenda focuses on strengthening cooperation in defence, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and cybersecurity. A new, classified framework is expected to facilitate the export of previously restricted Israeli military hardware to India.
Reportedly under discussion is Israel’s Iron Beam, a high-energy laser weapon system inducted into the Israeli army in December 2025. Cooperation regarding the potential transfer of Iron Dome missile defence technology for local manufacturing in India is also being considered.
Masood Khan, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States and the United Nations, described the visit as a pivotal moment. “News coming out suggests they are going to sign a special strategic agreement, one that could be seen as a counterpart to the agreement signed by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia last year,” he said. “Israel already has such special agreements with countries like the US and Germany.”
Masood Khalid, a former Pakistani ambassador to China, highlighted the military dimension of the deepening ties. “We saw how Israeli drones worked in the India-Pakistan conflict against us last year,” he said, referring to the use of Israeli-origin platforms during the four-day aerial clashes between the two countries in May 2025. “Public statements from both sides speak of strengthening strategic cooperation – particularly in defence, counterterrorism, cybersecurity and AI.”
The defence relationship is no longer a one-way street. During Israel’s military operations in Gaza in 2024, Indian companies reportedly supplied rockets and explosives to Tel Aviv, as confirmed by an Al Jazeera investigation.
Umer Karim, an associate fellow at the Riyadh-based King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, views the partnership as part of a broader recalibration of regional alliances. “India has entered into a strategic partnership with Israel, and at a time when both governments have been criticised for their actions, this bilateral relationship has become increasingly important for both,” he told Al Jazeera.
Netanyahu’s ‘Hexagon’ and Pakistan
Netanyahu’s “hexagon” proposal remains largely undefined, with a “organised presentation” promised at a later date. While Israel asserts it has weakened what Netanyahu described as the “Shia axis” through its campaign against Iran-aligned groups, the “emerging radical Sunni axis” remains less clearly articulated.
Analysts suggest this could encompass states and movements aligned with strands of political Islam critical of Israeli policy, including Turkey and countries that have strengthened security ties with Riyadh and Ankara, such as Pakistan. Pakistan also holds the distinction of being the only Muslim nation possessing nuclear weapons – a long-standing concern for Israel. In the 1980s, Israel reportedly attempted to recruit India for a joint military operation targeting a nuclear facility in Pakistan, but the plan was abandoned when New Delhi declined to participate.
Karim believes Pakistan is squarely within Israel’s focus. “Absolutely, Pakistan is part of this so-called radical Sunni axis,” he said, arguing that Pakistan’s strategic agreement with Riyadh and its close ties with Turkey directly influence Israel’s calculations. “In order to counter this, Israel will increase its defence cooperation and intel sharing with Delhi.”
Khalid pointed to longstanding intelligence links. “Intelligence sharing between Indian RAW and Israeli Mossad dates back to the sixties. So their strengthened interaction in this domain should be of serious concern for us,” he said, referring to the external intelligence agencies of India and Israel.
Others urge caution. Gokhan Ereli, an Ankara-based independent Gulf researcher, argued that Pakistan is unlikely to be an explicit target within Israel’s framing. “Pakistan is more plausibly affected indirectly, through the alignment of Israeli, Indian and Western threat narratives, than being singled out as a destabilising actor in its own right,” he told Al Jazeera.
Khan, the former ambassador, agreed. “I don’t perceive a direct threat, but the latent animosity is there. And when Modi is in Tel Aviv, he will try to poison Netanyahu and other leaders there to think about Pakistan in a hostile way,” he said.
Muhammad Shoaib, assistant professor of international relations at Quaid-i-Azam University, echoed that assessment. “India’s close relations with Israel are likely to negatively impact Tel Aviv’s perception and statements on Pakistan,” he said.
The Gulf Balancing Act
Perhaps the most complex challenge for Pakistan lies in navigating its relationships within the Gulf region. For decades, Pakistan has relied on Gulf partners for financial support, including loan rollovers and remittances that are vital to its economy.
Following the signing of the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia last September, discussions have intensified regarding the potential for Turkey to join a similar framework. However, the United Arab Emirates, a close partner of Pakistan, signed a strategic agreement with India in January 2026.
Khalid called for deeper economic integration to underpin these ties. “Pakistan is doing well to strengthen its bilateral ties with key Middle East countries, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait,” he said, “but apart from GCC, Pakistan also needs to promote regional cooperation, particularly with countries of Central Asia, Turkiye, Iran and Russia. Geoeconomics through greater trade and connectivity should be the basis of this regional cooperation.” The Gulf Cooperation Council consists of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Complicating matters further is Iran’s central role in current regional tensions. With Washington threatening potential military action against Iran, and Israel advocating for regime change in Tehran, Pakistan has quietly sought to de-escalate tensions by advocating for diplomatic solutions.
“But there are two main parties – Iran and the US – and then, most importantly, Israel, which doesn’t just limit its demands to a nuclear deal,” Khan, the former diplomat said. “It wants to expand to Iran’s missile defence capabilities and regional alliances, and that may well be a sticking point. Pakistan’s aspiration is to contribute to efforts to find a diplomatic solution.”
Strategic Contest
Pakistani policymakers must assess whether its ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey are robust enough to counterbalance the expanding India-Israel partnership. Modi and Netanyahu frame their security doctrines around countering what they describe as “Islamic radicalism”. New Delhi has repeatedly accused Pakistan of supporting violence against India.
However, Khan argued that Islamabad is not without leverage. “We have built a firewall around us by pushing back Indian aggression in May 2025, and by strengthening our ties with the US over the last year,” he said.