Most Dutch people no longer believe that the European NATO countries can count on American military support. They think that Europe will have to stand on its own two feet in the military field, thereby increasing support for the formation of a European army. This sentiment is evident from a representative survey conducted among 1,944 Dutch people, commissioned by a prominent news organization. The survey shows that there is little willingness among Dutch people to employ themselves when the Netherlands or another EU country is attacked, indicating a significant shift in public opinion towards European defense autonomy.

The percentage of people highly concerned about the war in Ukraine stands at about the same level as in April 2022, just after the war started. It marks a 10 percent increase from December of the previous year, reflecting the ongoing impact of the conflict on European security perceptions. There are growing fears among people that the conflict may not be resolved in a manner that is acceptable, given recent geopolitical shifts and statements from key figures.

According to Dick Zandee, a defense expert at the Clingendael research institute, “Recent statements from former U.S. President Donald Trump about negotiations with Russia have exacerbated these concerns. People have great doubts as to whether the war is being resolved in a manner acceptable for us.”

Previously, Trump’s Minister of Defense Pete Hegseeth remarked that Ukraine would have to give up certain territories in a peace agreement with Russia and that NATO membership is not on the table for Ukraine. The U.S. wants European soldiers to monitor a possible peace agreement, not American troops. “That raises the question whether we can do without the U.S., and you see the fear that it is not,” says Zandee.

The research revealed that only 30 percent of Dutch people expect the U.S. to continue to protect European NATO partners when necessary. This reflects a broad sentiment that Europe must become more self-reliant in defense matters, possibly through increased European cooperation and the formation of a European army.

While 49 percent of Dutch people now support the idea of a European army, with only 17 percent opposed, the concept of a literal European army is seen as unrealistic. Zandee highlights that “a European army in the literal sense of the word is not a realistic scenario. You have different languages, security interests, and governments. We must go for more European cooperation in the field of defense.” This perspective is echoed by European leaders, including German Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, who champion the idea of Europe taking care of its own defense.

“For example, our army purchases the same tanks as the Germans,” Zandee explains, underscoring the practical steps already being taken towards greater defense cooperation. This initiative aligns with the broader European defense strategy aimed at bolstering Europe’s military capabilities and reducing dependency on foreign powers.

The Fight for Ukraine

A quarter of the Dutch now think the Netherlands should send soldiers to Ukraine to assist the country, marking a record high since the beginning of the war. This sentiment is more than double what it was in the last two months, highlighting a growing public willingness to support Ukraine militarily. However, only 18 percent are willing and able to join the army if the Netherlands is attacked, and a mere 9 percent feel the same way if another EU country is under attack.

Zandee notes, “You often see that collective feelings with self-interest collide. Many people also see the willingness to work as ‘weakness will be exploited’.” This sentiment resonates with potential military interventions, where public opinion often grapples with the balance between national security and global responsibility.

According a recent poll, neither do Dutch people prefer not to be employed by an attack on an EU country. On the other hand, almost half of the respondents are behind mobilizing for an attack on the Netherlands, and more than 40 percent in an attack on another EU country.

In order to understand the broader implications of this shift, consider the historical context of U.S. involvement in European defense. After World War II, the U.S. played a pivotal role in the reconstruction and defense of Europe through initiatives like the Marshall Plan and the establishment of NATO. However, recent geopolitical tensions and internal shifts in U.S. policy have raised questions about the reliability of American support, pushing European nations to contemplate more independent defense strategies.

For instance, the Trump administration’s foreign policy, marked by its “America First” approach, saw significant shifts in U.S. commitments to international alliances. Statements and actions from the Trump era, such as the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the pullback from NATO commitments, have left European allies questioning the future of transatlantic defense partnerships. This sentiment is exemplified by the increased support for a European army, reflecting a desire for Europe to take greater control over its own security.

The implications of these shifting attitudes extend beyond mere military strategy. They reflect a broader realignment of European geopolitical ambitions and a move towards greater sovereignty. European leaders and defense experts agree that while a fully integrated European army may not be feasible in the near future, increased defense cooperation and strategic autonomy are crucial for Europe’s future security.