Museveni’s Victory: Implications for Uganda’s Future
- His share of the vote slumped from 35% in 2021 to 25% this time round, despite Uganda's overwhelmingly young population - a demographic long viewed as the 43-year-old's...
- From Wine's outlook, the election was neither credible nor legitimate.
- He maintains that the campaign was far from free and fair, pointing to repeated disruptions of his rallies by security forces, including the use of tear gas and...
For supporters of Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, his resounding victory in the just-concluded election is a vindication of his 40-year-long rule.
He won with 72% of the vote, close to his highest-ever tally of 74% in 2016. But for many Ugandans, particularly the young, the result feels like a continuation of a deeply flawed system.“`html
ReutersFor Wine, the result was a massive blow. His share of the vote slumped from 35% in 2021 to 25% this time round, despite Uganda’s overwhelmingly young population – a demographic long viewed as the 43-year-old’s natural base.
From Wine’s outlook, the election was neither credible nor legitimate.
He maintains that the campaign was far from free and fair, pointing to repeated disruptions of his rallies by security forces, including the use of tear gas and live ammunition to intimidate supporters, some of whom were killed.
He also alleged ballot stuffing but has not provided any evidence to back his claims.The authorities have not commented on the claims.
After two unsuccessful presidential bids,questions now hang over his political future.
There is a growing risk that he could follow the path of many opposition figures across Africa – politicians whose popular appeal was steadily eroded by sustained repression, leaving them permanently excluded from power.
viewed through that lens, the election appears less a moment of transformation than a ritual of the political calendar, one that legitimises deeper, slower shifts taking place within the ruling party, the National Resistance Movement (NRM), and the state machinery that it controls.
These shifts were first noticed during a cabinet reshuffle by Museveni in March 2023, and became unmistakable in the August 2025 elections for the NRM’s top decision-making body, the Central Executive Committee.
Far from being a routine internal contest, the process turned into a high-stakes struggle over positioning in a post-Museveni order.
Marked by factional bargaining and allegations of widespread bribery, the elections revealed a regime increasingly driven by succession politics rather than competition with an opposition that had either been dealt with by the security forces or co-opted.
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