Myanmar Coup Anniversary: Economic Struggles & Civil War
Table of Contents
A look at the challenges facing Myanmar following the 2021 military coup, including economic stagnation, rising conflict, and the conscription of young people.
Four years have elapsed as the February 2021 coup d’état in Myanmar, when the military junta seized power from the elected government. The nation continues to grapple with conflict between the military and various armed resistance groups. A Japanese observer residing in the country provides insights into the current living conditions faced by the people of Myanmar.
The Transformation from “last Frontier” to Troubled Nation
The observer recalls the optimism surrounding Myanmar before the coup, particularly after US President Barack Obama’s visit in November 2012.This visit, the first by a sitting american president, fueled hopes that Myanmar would become a land of chance.
The introduction of daily commercial flights between Narita and Yangon in July 2013 further boosted accessibility and interest. The Japanese media promoted Myanmar as the “last frontier” in Asia,attracting a wave of Japanese businesspersons seeking new ventures.
The Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry,Myanmar (JCCM) once boasted over 400 member companies. Yangon hosted approximately 5,000 Japanese residents and business travelers. The number of Japanese restaurants in Yangon surged from one to around 200 by 2016, reflecting the growing Japanese presence.
The Devastated Post-Coup Economy of Myanmar
While Myanmar experienced economic challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic, there were signs of recovery towards the end of 2020.However,the 2021 coup reversed this progress. Today, Myanmar’s economy is characterized by stagnation, low growth, and high inflation.
the country’s foreign currency reserves have dwindled. A shortage of American dollars led to severe energy shortages, even with oil tankers docked at Yangon port. People endured long queues at gas stations, sometimes waiting for two days to obtain fuel.
Even though fuel shortages have been temporarily addressed, other economic problems persist. The Myanmar kyat cannot be freely withdrawn from savings accounts, and prolonged inflation is burdening citizens. The kyat’s value has plummeted from around 1,500 per dollar to 7,000 per dollar by the summer of 2024, following the issuance of government bonds.This currency weakening and administrative disruption have severely impacted trade. Overall prices have doubled, and fuel costs have increased fivefold since the coup.
In response, the military government has imposed strict restrictions on dollar withdrawals and greenback-denominated imports to stem the outflow of dollars. Import licenses are primarily issued to companies within the Thilawa Special economic Zone near yangon.
The head of a major Japanese car dealership in Myanmar lamented the inability to import and sell cars despite important demand. These currency and inflation-related issues affect both foreign and domestic companies engaged in international trade. Until these problems are resolved, Myanmar’s economic recovery remains uncertain.
Rising Electricity Costs and Business Challenges
adding to the economic woes, the government announced a sharp increase in electricity rates in June 2024, purportedly to address “supply stability” issues.Electricity is often available for only eight hours every two days. Despite a 2.5-fold price increase, there has been no betterment in electricity availability, a critical factor for factory operations.
The rising cost of fuel for generators,combined with increased electricity costs,has caused energy bills for manufacturers to skyrocket,negating the benefits of Myanmar’s low labor costs.
Consequently, Japanese companies are withdrawing from the JCCM. While the JCCM has around 300 registered members, only about half are actively operating. The number of Japanese business people in Yangon has dwindled to approximately 500. A long-time resident of Myanmar stated that “this is the worst I have ever seen things,” even compared to previous periods of military rule.
Forced Conscription and Human Rights Concerns
While Yangon remains relatively safe, the situation outside the city is dire. Military operations, including air strikes, have devastated some areas, leaving many residents homeless.
The People’s Defense Force (PDF), the armed wing of the National Unity Government, is resisting the military junta. A fierce civil war is ongoing,with the military government’s forces reportedly suffering significant losses.
In June 2024, the military government activated Myanmar’s conscription law, reflecting the severity of its personnel shortages. While most conscripts are young men aged 18 to 45, women have also been drafted for logistical support. Disturbingly, individuals younger than 18 are being forced into military service.
Reports indicate that boys as young as 14 and 15 are being forcibly recruited into the military, often after being compelled to consume alcohol and tobacco. These untrained adolescents are sent to the front lines, where they often lose their lives. Many young people are attempting to evade conscription, including by fleeing to other countries.
Moreover, many schools in conflict zones have suspended classes due to the bombing of schools and the killing of teachers. This disruption to education raises serious concerns about the future of the current generation.
Hopes for the Future
despite the coup, the Japanese government maintained a diplomatic presence in Myanmar to facilitate communication with the military junta. The presence of Maruyama Ichirō, a seasoned diplomat with extensive experience in Myanmar, as ambassador was reassuring. however, his departure in September 2024 and Tokyo’s decision not to send a replacement have removed this sense of security.
Myanmar has transitioned from being the “Last Frontier” to the “Lost Frontier.” The question remains whether Myanmar can regain its path to democracy and a brighter future. The hope is that myanmar will overcome these challenges and once again be known as the “Newest Frontier.”
Here’s a Q&A-style article based on the provided text, incorporating your specifications:
Myanmar: Four Years After the Coup - A Q&A
introduction
Following the February 2021 coup d’état, Myanmar has faced immense challenges. This article provides insights into the current situation, drawing on observations of a Japanese resident.
Q&A: Myanmar’s Post-Coup Reality
1. What was the pre-coup perception of myanmar, and how has it changed?
Before the coup, Myanmar was seen as a land of prospect, described as the “Last Frontier” in Asia. Events such as the visit from US President Barack Obama in 2012, which fueled hopes for positive change, and the introduction of daily commercial flights between Narita and Yangon in 2013 boosted accessibility and interest. The Japanese media promoted Myanmar as the “last frontier,” attracting Japanese businesses.Since the coup, it has become known as the “Lost Frontier.”
2. How has the coup impacted Myanmar’s economy?
Myanmar’s economy, which showed signs of recovery towards the end of 2020, has been severely impacted by the 2021 coup. The economy is now characterized by stagnation, low growth, and high inflation. The contry’s foreign currency reserves have dwindled, leading too shortages, especially of fuel. The value of the Myanmar kyat has plummeted considerably, and overall prices have doubled leading to increased costs for business owners and citizens.
3. What specific economic challenges are businesses in Myanmar facing?
Businesses face a multitude of challenges:
Currency Issues: The kyat’s devaluation has significantly impacted trade, causing import costs to skyrocket.
Inflation: overall prices have doubled, and fuel costs have increased fivefold as the coup.
Import Restrictions: Strict restrictions on dollar withdrawals and greenback-denominated imports, coupled with licensing limitations, are major hurdles.
Rising Electricity Costs: A sharp increase in electricity rates in June 2024 has added to the economic burden, with little advancement in electricity availability.
Fuel Shortages: Though temporarily addressed, fuel shortages caused long queues at gas stations.
4. How is the energy crisis affecting businesses, particularly Japanese companies?
The rising cost of fuel and electricity is severely impacting businesses, especially manufacturers. Energy bills have skyrocketed, negating the benefits of Myanmar’s low labor costs. This has led Japanese companies to withdraw from the Japanese Chamber of commerce and Industry, Myanmar (JCCM).
5. What is the current state of the Japanese business community in Myanmar?
The Japanese business community in Myanmar has dwindled considerably. The JCCM, which once had over 400 member companies, now has only about half of its 300 registered members actively operating. The number of Japanese business people in Yangon has decreased dramatically, down to approximately 500.
6. What is the situation with forced conscription, and who is being affected?
The military government activated Myanmar’s conscription law in June 2024 due to personnel shortages. While most conscripts are young men aged 18 to 45,women have also been drafted for logistical support. Disturbingly, individuals younger than 18 are being forced into military service. Boys as young as 14 and 15 are being forcibly recruited, and many young people are trying to evade conscription by fleeing the country.
7. What are the human rights concerns associated with the conflict?
The conflict has led to severe human rights violations:
Forced Conscription: Young people, including children, are being forcibly recruited into the military.
Civil War: Military operations,including air strikes,have devastated areas outside Yangon,causing homelessness.
Education Disruptions: Schools in conflict zones have suspended classes becuase of bombings and the killing of teachers, raising concerns about the future of the current generation.
8. How is the ongoing conflict affecting those outside of Yangon?
Outside Yangon, the situation is dire. military operations, including air strikes, have devastated some areas, leaving many residents homeless. A fierce civil war is ongoing between the military and the People’s Defense Force (PDF),resulting in notable losses.
9. Has the international community maintained a presence, and what is the current status of diplomatic relations?
Despite the coup, the Japanese government maintained a diplomatic presence in Myanmar to facilitate communication with the military junta. The presence of Maruyama Ichirō, a seasoned diplomat, as ambassador was reassuring. However, his departure in September 2024 and Tokyo’s decision not to send a replacement have removed this sense of security.
10. What are the hopes for the future of Myanmar?
The hope is that Myanmar can overcome its current challenges and regain its path to democracy and a brighter future, returning to its former reputation as the “Newest Frontier.”
Summary of Key Challenges
| Challenge | Description | Impact |
| ——————————– | ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————— | ————————————————————————————————————————————— |
| Economic Stagnation | Low growth, high inflation, dwindling foreign currency reserves. | Increased costs for fuel, goods, and services. |
| Currency Devaluation | Plummeting value of the kyat. | Imports become costly, and trade is disrupted. |
| Energy Crisis | Fuel shortages, rising electricity costs, and unreliable electricity supply. | Challenges for manufacturers, impacting operational costs and productivity. |
| Forced Conscription | Recruitment of young people, including children, into the military. | Human rights concerns, potential loss of life, and disruption of education. |
| Civil Conflict | ongoing fighting between the military junta and resistance forces, including air strikes. | Displacement of the population, destruction of infrastructure and schools. |
| Diplomatic Uncertainty | Departure of the Japanese ambassador and the absence of a replacement. | Loss of a diplomatic presence and a decline in confidence. |