Myanmar Junta Ends State of Emergency, Prepares for Elections
Myanmar’s Junta Lifts State of Emergency, Paving Way for Contested December Election
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Naypyidaw, Myanmar - Myanmar’s ruling military junta has officially ended the nation’s state of emergency, a move widely seen as a strategic step too accelerate preparations for a general election slated for december. However, the upcoming poll faces significant opposition, with key groups vowing to boycott the process and international monitors expressing grave concerns about its legitimacy.
Junta’s Strategic Maneuver: Elections as an “Off-Ramp”
The state of emergency was initially declared in February 2021 by the military, led by Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, following the deposition of the civilian government headed by Aung San Suu Kyi. This action plunged the nation into a widespread civil war, resulting in thousands of casualties. The emergency order granted Min Aung Hlaing absolute authority over the country’s legislative, executive, and judicial branches.
Recently, min Aung Hlaing has promoted the idea of elections as a pathway to de-escalate the ongoing conflict. “The state of emergency is abolished today in order for the country to hold elections on the path to a multiparty democracy,” stated junta spokesperson Zaw Min Tun in a recent message to reporters.
Opposition Boycott and International Skepticism
Despite the junta’s pronouncements, opposition factions, including former lawmakers who were removed from power in the 2021 coup, have declared thier intention to boycott the december election. A United Nations expert recently characterized the planned vote as “a fraud” designed to legitimize the military’s continued grip on power.
Analysts anticipate that Min Aung Hlaing will likely retain a significant role, potentially as president or chief of the armed forces, following the election. This scenario suggests a consolidation of his power and an extension of his tenure as the country’s de facto ruler.
Preparing for the Poll: A Contested Path Forward
Min Aung Hlaing himself has signaled a transition, stating in a speech reported by the state newspaper, the Global New Light of Myanmar, “We have already passed the first chapter. Now, we are starting the second chapter.” He further emphasized that ”The upcoming election will be held this December, and efforts will be made to enable all eligible voters to cast their ballots.”
While an exact election date has not yet been announced, the junta has been actively registering political parties and conducting training sessions on electronic voting machines.
Crackdown on Dissent and Electoral Integrity Concerns
In a move to control the narrative and suppress opposition, the military government recently enacted a law imposing prison sentences of up to 10 years for speech or protests deemed to “destroy a part of the electoral process.”
Preparations for the election have also been hampered by significant data collection shortfalls. A census conducted last year, intended to inform the electoral process, reportedly failed to gather data from 19 million of myanmar’s 51 million citizens. Provisional results cited “significant security constraints” as a primary reason for this shortfall, underscoring the limited reach and potential impact of the election amidst the ongoing civil war.
Analysts predict that rebel groups may launch offensives around the election period as a presentation of their opposition. In a bid to quell further unrest, the junta has also begun offering cash incentives to individuals willing to surrender their arms and “return to the legal fold” in the lead-up to the vote.