The world appears to have grown accustomed to the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. Over 92,000 people have been killed in the five years since the coup, and more than 16 million require humanitarian assistance. Despite being one of the most severe conflicts globally, it has largely faded from international headlines. This dispatch examines why Western nations have struggled to halt or influence the conflict, and how Russia and China are benefiting from the resulting instability.
From Protest to Armed Resistance
On , Myanmar’s military enacted a coup, detaining elected leaders, blocking telecommunications and internet access, and declaring a state of emergency. The military claimed widespread fraud in the elections, a claim disputed by international observers.
Within days, millions took to the streets. Civil servants walked out, students, doctors, and teachers joined what became known as the Civil Disobedience Movement. The demonstrations were met with gunfire, transforming the protests into a nationwide armed resistance. Today, Myanmar finds itself embroiled in one of the most complex civil wars in the world.
Recent reports indicate that more than 92,000 people have been killed since the coup. Approximately 3.5 million people are internally displaced, bringing the total number of people forcibly displaced to over four million.
Roughly one-third of Myanmar’s population – around 16 million people – now require humanitarian assistance, including food, shelter, and medical care. Some estimates suggest the military controls only around 20% of the country’s territory, with opposition forces and ethnic armed organizations controlling large areas of the countryside and border regions.
Elections Under the Shadow of Civil War
Despite the fragmentation of the country, the military regime attempted to proceed with national elections at the end of and the beginning of . While the elections took place, many opposition parties were barred from participating, thousands of political prisoners remain incarcerated, and voter turnout dropped to approximately 55%, significantly lower than in previous democratic elections.
Parties aligned with the military secured a commanding majority in parliament. Five years after the coup, Myanmar holds elections, but lacks stability and legitimacy. The international community acknowledges the situation, but lacks decisive action.
Western Response and Limited Influence
Western nations responded to the coup with sanctions, increased diplomatic pressure, and humanitarian aid. However, even under sanctions, the Myanmar military continued to receive critical war supplies. In , Myanmar imported over 109,000 tons of aviation fuel, making it the deadliest year for aerial attacks since the coup.
Low-tech aerial attacks also continue, with over 300 reported attacks on civilians using paramotors and light aircraft since the end of . While Western nations have imposed sanctions, structural limitations hinder their ability to influence events in Myanmar. Myanmar is not deeply integrated into Western economic supply chains, nor is it a major production hub for Western companies or a significant energy exporter to the West.
Despite the scale and tragic consequences of the crisis, global politics often prioritizes economic interdependence and strategic interests. While many Western countries have reacted, their decisions and actions have proven insufficient to halt the civil war.
China Deepens Myanmar’s Economic Dependence
While many nations have sought to halt the conflict, some have actively contributed to its continuation. China’s relationship with Myanmar is deep and structural. China is Myanmar’s largest trading partner and a key investor. In , Myanmar exported approximately $620 million USD worth of rare earth metals to China – materials critical for electronics, renewable energy, and modern industry.
China is also involved in infrastructure projects, including the construction of transport corridors, pipelines, and energy projects.
Myanmar, in turn, provides China with access to the Indian Ocean and helps diversify its trade routes. Deep economic ties are coupled with China’s role as a powerful political mediator, having hosted talks between the Myanmar military and some ethnic armed groups. China also exerts pressure on Myanmar, but only when cross-border crime threatens its interests. China does not desire war, but benefits from the instability, which increases Myanmar’s economic and political dependence on Beijing.
Russia’s Growing Influence in Energy
Russia plays a smaller economic role in Myanmar than China, but focuses on strategically important sectors. It has signed agreements for oil and gas exploration, electricity generation projects, and industrial cooperation. Russia is also a major supplier of military equipment to Myanmar, with its aircraft and helicopters helping the Myanmar military maintain operational capabilities.
For Russia, these relationships are both geopolitical and economic.
Neither Russia nor China initiated the civil war in Myanmar, but both are willing to cooperate with the current government, rather than one that might emerge in the future.
Myanmar’s civil war is a complex case in contemporary international politics. It is a conflict condemned by the international community, but one it is unable or unwilling to actively influence. The Myanmar case demonstrates the difficulty of achieving international consensus for more assertive action when a conflict does not directly threaten the strategic interests of major powers. Without a significant shift in the international approach, it risks continuing as a long-term source of instability in the region.
Myanmar’s Ruby Riches
Historically, the world’s highest quality rubies have come from the region around Mogok in central Myanmar, often referred to as the “Ruby Land.” This region is geologically unique, with rubies forming under specific temperature and pressure conditions millions of years ago. These conditions created what gemologists call “pigeon’s blood” red color – a highly saturated, deep red hue with a subtle internal glow.
This effect is caused by the presence of chromium in the stone, combined with natural fluorescence that makes the ruby appear almost “alive” under certain lighting. This property is extremely rare. Most rubies worldwide are smaller and have lighter colors, often with violet or brownish tones. The highest quality Mogok rubies retain a pure, intense red color.
The size of Myanmar’s rubies is also exceptional. High-quality rubies of significant size are exceedingly rare globally. Top-quality Mogok rubies can fetch hundreds of thousands of US dollars per carat at auction. Some historical stones have exceeded $1 million per carat, making them among the most expensive colored gemstones in the world.
For centuries, Myanmar has supplied a large portion of the world’s highest quality rubies. Historically, Burmese kings considered them symbols of power and protection, with some warriors even embedding them under their skin, believing they would render them invulnerable.
Today, the ruby industry remains economically significant. Historically, the gem sector in the Mogok region could be worth hundreds of millions of US dollars annually, although precise figures are often difficult to determine due to informal mining and smuggling. China is now one of the largest buyers of Myanmar’s gemstones, meaning geopolitical factors also influence the luxury goods market.
