Nasdaq 100: Potential Top & Technical Analysis
- Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures are feeling the pressure,dropping 1.80% in asian trading as geopolitical tensions stoke risk aversion.
- The surge in oil prices,fueled by supply disruption fears in the Strait of Hormuz,could throw a wrench into the Federal reserve's plans for interest rate cuts.
- According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the market anticipates a 98% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, bringing the Fed funds rate...
Nasdaq 100 Futures Drop Amid Rising Oil Prices,Rate Cut Jitters
Updated June 13,2025
Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures are feeling the pressure,dropping 1.80% in asian trading as geopolitical tensions stoke risk aversion. Israel’s airstrikes, coupled with a 10% oil price spike, are rattling markets.
The surge in oil prices,fueled by supply disruption fears in the Strait of Hormuz,could throw a wrench into the Federal reserve’s plans for interest rate cuts. Rising WTI and crude prices may force the Fed to maintain its current stance.
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the market anticipates a 98% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, bringing the Fed funds rate to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%.This would be the first cut since December 2024.
However, if the Fed opts to “wait and hold” due to inflationary pressures from higher oil prices, tighter liquidity conditions could trigger a negative reaction in U.S. stock indices. The Nasdaq 100, known for its higher beta, might experience steeper declines compared to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The Nasdaq 100 CFD Index faces key short-term resistance between 21,700 and 21,770.A break below near-term support at 21,640 could lead to further declines toward intermediate support levels at 21,180/21,030 and 20,690.
Technical analysis indicates that the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index recently broke down from a minor bearish “Ascending Wedge” pattern. The index’s intraday loss has erased gains from earlier in the week, suggesting a potential minor top formed on June 11. A bearish divergence on the daily RSI momentum indicator further supports the likelihood of continued weakness.
Bearish with key short-term pivotal resistance at 21,700/21,770 for the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index, and a break below the near-term support at 21,640 exposes the next intermediate supports at 21,180/21,030, and 20,690.
What’s next
Conversely,a move above the 21,770 resistance level could invalidate the bearish outlook and pave the way for a retest of the next intermediate resistance at 22,050,potentially targeting the all-time high area between 22,200 and 22,250.