MUNICH, Germany — NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has issued a stark warning to European allies, asserting that Russia could launch an attack on a NATO member within the next five years if defense spending does not dramatically increase. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on , Rutte underscored the urgency of bolstering defenses against a resurgent Russia, citing recent casualty figures from the war in Ukraine as evidence of Moscow’s willingness to accept significant losses.
Rutte’s comments come amid ongoing discussions surrounding a potential peace deal for Ukraine, with U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly playing a role in crafting a proposal. However, Rutte cautioned against complacency, stating that the threat from Russia is not diminishing and requires a robust response. “We need to be ready because conflicts… are no longer fought at arm’s length. Conflict is at our door,” he said, drawing a parallel to the scale of warfare experienced by previous generations.
The NATO chief highlighted the alarming rate of Russian casualties in Ukraine, stating that Western officials estimate Russia lost 35,000 soldiers in December and 30,000 in January – exceeding the number of recruits in the same period. He emphasized that while these losses may not immediately be felt in major Russian cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, they are unsustainable and will inevitably impact the entire country. “I would say, ‘Do everything you can to stop this, because it is killing Russia. It is so bad for Russia,’” Rutte urged.
Rutte’s call for increased defense spending aligns with a recent agreement among NATO members to raise their defense spending targets to 5% of their gross domestic product by 2035, a significant increase from the current 2% target. This move reflects growing concerns about Russia’s aggressive posture and the need to deter further escalation. The conference followed a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, where a further $500 million in military aid to Ukraine was pledged through the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL).
The aid package includes over $200 million from Britain earmarked for air defense missiles, as Russia continues to target Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, also present at the Munich Security Conference, expressed gratitude for the continued support from the U.S. And European countries, stating that Ukraine is prepared to negotiate a peace agreement. However, Zelensky voiced skepticism about Russia’s sincerity, noting a lack of evidence suggesting a genuine desire for a resolution.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed Zelensky’s doubts, publicly questioning whether there is clear evidence that Russia seeks to end the war. Zelensky himself stated that Russia’s ultimate goal appears to be the complete occupation of Ukraine, dismissing the notion that ceding the Donbas region would lead to peace. “Just imagine if Putin got his way; Ukraine under the boot of Russian occupation, his forces pressing against a longer border with NATO, and the significantly increased risk of an armed attack against us,” Rutte warned.
The future of Russia’s relationship with the West remains uncertain. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski expressed pessimism about a return to normal relations under the current Russian leadership, drawing a historical parallel to “colonial wars” and suggesting that a change in leadership is necessary for any meaningful improvement in ties. “Let’s have a peace deal first and then see what happens after that,” Rutte said, reiterating that NATO views Russia as a long-term threat to its territory.
The discussions in Munich took place against a backdrop of increasing Russian efforts to control the information landscape within its own borders. Rutte noted that the Kremlin is further restricting access to global information by blocking platforms like Telegram and WhatsApp, highlighting the importance of countering disinformation and ensuring that the Russian people are aware of the true cost of the war.
The Moscow Times reported that NATO is preparing for a potential conflict with Russia, with Rutte emphasizing the need for allies to take greater responsibility for their own defense. This sentiment was echoed by other officials at the conference, who acknowledged the importance of transatlantic cooperation while also recognizing the need for Europe to strengthen its own capabilities. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing peace talks and a continued build-up of military capabilities on both sides.
