NATO’s Nuclear Deterrence Crisis Without US Support

The stability of European security is facing significant uncertainty as the actions of the Trump administration raise doubts about the continued viability of the United States’ nuclear deterrence guarantees for NATO allies. Analysis indicates that providing adequate nuclear deterrence against Russia without the backing of the US could prove to be an unattainable goal for European NATO member states.

Tensions within the alliance have been exacerbated by the US administration’s pursuit of Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark. On January 8, 2026, reports highlighted that Donald Trump’s vow to acquire the mineral-rich island has challenged the post-Second World War order. Washington stated that US military force is always an option to achieve this national security priority.

The threat sparked a joint response from Denmark, Greenland, and other European allies, including the UK, who asserted that Greenland belongs to its people. Denmark’s prime minister warned that a hostile takeover of the territory would amount to the end of the NATO alliance.

Risks of Nuclear Proliferation

Rose Gottemoeller, who served as NATO’s deputy secretary-general and held senior positions in the State Department, has warned that the increasingly erratic behavior of Washington signals a threat to the alliance’s nuclear umbrella over Europe. She stated that any actions raising doubts about US support for NATO also raise doubts about the willingness of the US to extend nuclear deterrent guarantees.

Everything that the United States is doing to raise doubts about its support for the Nato alliance will raise doubts about its willingness to extend a nuclear deterrent guarantee to Nato Europe. That creates the potential for future proliferation of nuclear weapons

Rose Gottemoeller

Gottemoeller noted that this trend toward nuclear proliferation is already manifesting in Asia, where Japan and South Korea are speculating about the need for their own nuclear weapons. Similar speculations have emerged among parliamentarians in Germany.

The stakes are centered on the presence of an estimated 100 US-owned nuclear warheads stored across five European NATO member states, which are intended for use in the event of an external threat.

NATO’s Strategic Framework

These developments contrast with the consensus articulated in NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept. The document defines the fundamental purpose of the alliance’s nuclear capability as follows:

the fundamental purpose of NATO’s nuclear capability is to preserve peace, prevent coercion and deter aggression

NATO 2022 Strategic Concept

NATO has maintained that it will remain a nuclear alliance for as long as nuclear weapons exist, while simultaneously seeking to create the security environment necessary for a world without them. The alliance aims to achieve its goals through an appropriate mix of capabilities to deter aggression and preserve peace.