NCAA Tournament Projections: Ohio State, USC on the Bubble | March Madness 2026 Forecast
- The stretch run of the college basketball season is intensifying and the NCAA Tournament picture is sharpening with each passing game.
- Ohio State, currently February 24, 2026, holds a record of 17-10 overall and 9-7 in Big Ten play.
- USC finds itself in a similar situation, having recently dropped three straight games and falling to 18-9 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten competition.
The stretch run of the college basketball season is intensifying and the NCAA Tournament picture is sharpening with each passing game. As Selection Sunday approaches – – teams on the bubble are acutely aware that every possession, every win, and every loss carries significant weight. Two programs currently navigating this precarious position are Ohio State and USC, both vying for inclusion in the 68-team field.
Ohio State, currently , holds a record of 17-10 overall and 9-7 in Big Ten play. The Buckeyes experienced a promising start to the season, opening with a 6-0 record, but have since struggled to maintain consistent momentum, failing to string together more than two consecutive victories. With four regular-season games remaining, Ohio State has a crucial opportunity to bolster its tournament résumé. A key test awaits them on Wednesday with a road contest against Iowa.
USC finds itself in a similar situation, having recently dropped three straight games and falling to 18-9 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten competition. The Trojans face an immediate challenge as they travel to UCLA on Tuesday night, a game that could significantly impact their tournament hopes. The need to reverse their current losing streak is paramount.
The performance of both the Buckeyes and Trojans will have broader implications for the Big Ten’s overall representation in the tournament. A strong finish from both programs could potentially elevate the conference’s total bids to 11, rivaling the SEC, which currently leads projections with 11 teams expected to make the field.
According to bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy of FOX Sports, Ohio State is currently clinging to one of the last four spots in the tournament, while USC has slipped to being among the first four teams out. This underscores the razor-thin margin separating inclusion and exclusion at this stage of the season.
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Beyond Ohio State and USC, DeCourcy’s projections reveal a tightly contested bubble landscape. Auburn, Santa Clara, VCU, and New Mexico are currently positioned as the last four teams in, while TCU, UCLA, San Diego State, and Auburn find themselves on the outside looking in. The coming days will be critical for these programs as they attempt to solidify their tournament credentials.
From a conference perspective, the SEC currently leads the way with 11 projected bids, followed by the Big Ten with nine. The ACC is expected to send eight teams to the tournament, while the Big 12 has seven. The Big East and West Coast conferences each have three representatives, and the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 are projected to send two teams apiece.
With less than a month remaining until Selection Sunday, the NCAA Tournament projections are subject to change. However, DeCourcy’s latest forecast provides a valuable snapshot of the current landscape, highlighting the teams that are trending in the right direction, those that are faltering, and those that are already building the résumés necessary for a March Madness berth. The coming weeks promise to be filled with drama and excitement as teams across the country battle for a chance to compete for the national championship.