NESN: How Likely Is It Bruins Will Get Maple Leafs First-Round Pick?

The Boston Bruins’ chances of securing the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 2026 first-round pick have diminished following Toronto’s recent struggles, which guaranteed the Leafs would finish in the bottom five of the NHL standings ahead of the draft lottery.

At the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline, Boston acquired Fraser Minten, a 2026 first-round pick that is top-five protected, along with a 2025 fourth-round pick in exchange for defenseman Brandon Carlo. The protection clause means the Maple Leafs retain their pick if they earn a top-five selection in the NHL Draft Lottery; otherwise, the conveyance to Boston proceeds.

Toronto’s 3-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday secured their position in the bottom five, eliminating any chance of finishing higher in the standings. However, as the Leafs have now locked into a bottom-five finish, the outcome of the NHL Draft Lottery will determine whether they keep their pick or see it conveyed to Boston.

According to current projections, the Maple Leafs have a 58.2% chance of falling to sixth or seventh overall in the lottery, which would result in the Bruins receiving the pick. Specifically, Toronto holds a 44% chance of securing the sixth pick and a 14.2% chance of obtaining the seventh pick — both of which would transfer to Boston.

Conversely, the Leafs retain an 8.5% chance of winning the first overall pick, an 8.6% chance of selecting second, a 0.3% chance of drafting third, and a 24.5% probability of landing the fifth pick — the latter being the highest single outcome that would allow Toronto to keep the selection due to the top-five protection.

Despite finishing in the bottom five, the Leafs’ lottery odds suggest there remains a greater likelihood they will fall just outside the top five, thereby gifting Boston another first-round opportunity to add a high-end prospect to their organizational depth.

The NHL Draft Lottery is scheduled for May 5, 2026, and will be closely monitored by Bruins fans and front office personnel eager to see whether the protection clause is triggered or bypassed.