Washington and Tehran remain locked in a high-stakes diplomatic dance, punctuated by military posturing and veiled threats, as negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities continue. The talks, which resumed in Rome on , follow an initial round held in Oman from to , and come against a backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, following a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington this week, expressed skepticism about the prospect of a comprehensive agreement with Iran. “I expressed general skepticism about any agreement with Iran,” Netanyahu told reporters on , “but I said that if an agreement is reached, it must include the elements that are important to Israel: not only the nuclear program, but also the ballistic missiles, and also the Iranian proxies.” Trump, however, indicated he believes the conditions being imposed on Tehran “may lead them to accept terms that would allow for a good deal.”
The current negotiations build upon a letter sent by President Trump to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last year, initiating a period of intense, albeit ultimately unsuccessful, direct engagement. Trump initially set a two-month deadline for a deal, which passed without resolution, subsequently leading to an Israeli attack on Iran and a full-scale war between the two countries. The current round of talks is being led on the U.S. Side by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, alongside Director of Policy Planning Michael Anton and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper, with President Trump’s advisor Jared Kushner also involved. Iran’s delegation is headed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi, and Supreme National Security Council member Ali Larijani.
While both the Iranian Foreign Minister and the White House initially described the earlier discussions as “constructive,” the path forward remains uncertain. The U.S. Is pushing for an agreement that addresses not only Iran’s nuclear program but also its ballistic missile development and support for regional proxies – concerns echoed by Israel. Iran, however, is likely to resist any agreement that unduly constrains its military capabilities or limits its regional influence.
Adding to the complexity, Ali Larijani, Iran’s national security chief, issued a stark warning, stating that Tehran would strike U.S. Bases in the region if attacked. This statement underscores the high stakes involved and the potential for rapid escalation should negotiations fail. The warning comes as the U.S. Continues to deploy military assets to the Middle East, a move widely interpreted as a signal of resolve and a deterrent against Iranian aggression.
According to former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Norm Roule, the current U.S. Approach is rooted in a set of strategic objectives outlined in the December 2025 National Security Strategy: avoiding involvement in a costly regional war, maintaining open sea lanes, and ensuring stable energy markets. Roule emphasizes that the U.S. Seeks to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, constrain its missile programs, and end its support for terrorism and regional destabilization.
“The administration has made no secret of its buildup of one of the most powerful offensive air, missile, and air defense capabilities in history,” Roule stated. “Israel has also threatened military action.” He suggests that the current military deployments are intended to pressure Iran into making concessions, while simultaneously preparing for the possibility of military intervention if negotiations collapse.
Roule points to the significant losses Iran has sustained in recent years, including the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, a historic low turnout in elections, and economic hardship exacerbated by international sanctions. The June 2025 conflict reportedly degraded Iran’s nuclear capabilities, though Roule cautions that these can be rebuilt. He also highlights the setbacks to Iran’s regional proxy network and the failure of external allies like Syria and Venezuela to provide meaningful support.
Despite these challenges, Roule believes Iran remains a formidable adversary, capable of asymmetric responses, including missile and cyberattacks, and disruption of vital waterways like the Strait of Hormuz. He notes that Iran’s leadership is unified and determined to survive, even in the face of widespread domestic discontent. “Iran may not be able to compete with the U.S. Militarily, but that has always been the case,” Roule explained. “Its leaders know that they must be able to threaten an asymmetric response.”
The situation remains fluid and unpredictable. While the U.S. Continues to pursue a diplomatic solution, the possibility of military conflict looms large. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining whether a negotiated settlement can be reached or whether the region will be plunged into further instability. The outcome will have far-reaching implications for the Middle East and the global energy market, and will undoubtedly shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.
Roule concludes that the current moment presents an opportunity to test whether increased pressure, potentially including military action, can compel Iran to alter its behavior. However, he acknowledges the inherent risks and uncertainties involved, emphasizing the need for careful consideration of all potential consequences.
