New Home Sales Drop: 3-Year High in Supply
- Census Bureau data reveals a critically important drop in new home sales in May.
- The May figure represents a 6.3% decrease compared to May of last year.It also falls short of the six-month average of 671,000 and the one-year average of 676,000.
- Analysts surveyed by dow Jones had anticipated new home sales of 695,000 for May.
New home sales plummeted in may, revealing notable challenges for teh housing market. Single-family home sales slumped 13.7% from April, driving the new home supply to a 9.8-month high. This surge,fueled by persistently high mortgage rates,reflects a slowdown unseen since the summer of 2022. This decrease in sales also represents a 6.3% drop compared to May 2024, highlighting the strain on potential homebuyers.As reported by News Directory 3, analysts link this decline to elevated mortgage rates adn reduced consumer confidence, impacting affordability and buyer activity. Discover what’s next for the housing market as experts watch closely for signs of recovery.
New Home Sales Plunge Amid High Mortgage rates
U.S. Census Bureau data reveals a critically important drop in new home sales in May. Sales of new single-family homes decreased by 13.7% from April, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000. This decline in new home sales underscores the challenges facing the housing market.
The May figure represents a 6.3% decrease compared to May of last year.It also falls short of the six-month average of 671,000 and the one-year average of 676,000. Pre-pandemic levels in 2019 saw an average of 685,000 units sold, further highlighting the current slowdown in the housing market.
Analysts surveyed by dow Jones had anticipated new home sales of 695,000 for May. The lower-than-expected figure reflects the impact of elevated mortgage rates on potential homebuyers. These figures are based on signed contracts, reflecting buyer behavior during a period of persistently high mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.83% at the start of May, peaking just above 7% before settling at 6.95% by month’s end, according to Mortgage News Daily.
bradley Saunders, economist at Capital Economics, noted the impact of mortgage rates on the housing market. “The large fall in new home sales in May cancels out all of the positivity of the past couple of months and serves as a valuable reminder that buyer activity can only rise so far with mortgage rates hugging 7%,” Saunders said.
Homebuilders have also acknowledged the effect of high rates on affordability in recent earnings reports.
Stuart miller, co-CEO of Lennar, addressed the challenges during an earnings call. “The macro economy remains challenging, as mortgage interest rates have remained higher while consumer confidence has been challenged by a wide range of uncertainties, both domestic and global,” Miller said.”Across the housing landscape, actionable demand has been diminished by both affordability and consumer confidence, and therefore has continued to soften.”
While Lennar reported lowering prices, KB Home, which also released quarterly earnings this week, indicated thay had raised prices.
The median price of a new home sold in May was $426,600,a 3% increase from the previous year,according to the Census report.
The slowdown in sales has led to a rise in supply. At the end of May, there were 507,000 new homes for sale, representing a 9.8-month supply at the current sales rate. This is a 15% increase from May 2024.
Supply levels last reached this height briefly in the summer of 2022, following the Federal Reserve’s initial post-pandemic interest rate hikes. Prior to that, similar supply levels were observed in 2009, during the subprime mortgage crisis and the great Recession.
What’s next
The housing market’s trajectory hinges on mortgage rate trends and consumer confidence. Economists will closely monitor upcoming economic data to gauge the potential for recovery in new home sales.