New Zealand in ‘big trouble’ amid growing global uncertainty, US-China relations, expert says – RNZ

Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, an expert on Indo-Pacific security, has warned that New Zealand is in “big trouble” due to increasing global uncertainty and the volatile state of relations between the United States and China.

Speaking at a seminar in Wellington on May 14, 2026, Pongsudhirak, a professor of International Relations, argued that the United States had previously functioned as a stabilizing anchor for the region. However, he stated that this dynamic has changed, leaving New Zealand and other nations in a precarious position.

Pongsudhirak attributed this instability to a shift in American politics, asserting that a “pull to the right” in the United States has put other countries off balance. He told the seminar that New Zealand must find a new way to navigate the current international landscape.

“New Zealand’s in big trouble,” Pongsudhirak said. “You have to get back on your feet and find a new way.”

Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak

As a potential solution, Pongsudhirak suggested that New Zealand consider a “bold” strategic move by seeking admission into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). He argued that even if full membership is not achieved, New Zealand should learn from how ASEAN members relate to China.

The professor noted that ASEAN members have increasingly pivoted toward Beijing in response to the ways Donald Trump has remade U.S. Politics. He described himself as an ASEAN “booster,” claiming that the network is essential for regional stability.

“New Zealand will need the ASEAN network more than before,” Pongsudhirak said, adding that without such a network, the situation would be even more difficult.

Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak

ASEAN Regional Context

ASEAN is a regional intergovernmental organization comprising Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. Timor-Leste joined the organization in 2025.

Pongsudhirak’s comments come as he visits New Zealand to mark the 70th year of diplomatic relations between New Zealand and Thailand.

Government Response and Global Tensions

The warnings from Pongsudhirak contrast with the public stance of New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. In a pre-Budget speech delivered on May 13, 2026, Luxon addressed the current “inflection point in world affairs.”

Luxon stated that he remained “relentlessly optimistic” regarding the ability of New Zealand and its international partners to remake the international order.

These discussions occur against the backdrop of a state visit by U.S. President Donald Trump to China. During the visit, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that the two nations should operate as partners rather than rivals.

However, President Xi also cautioned that missteps regarding Taiwan could potentially push the United States and China into a conflict.