NFL Draft Betting Picks: First Round QB and CB Value Plays

The 2026 NFL Draft is scheduled to begin April 23 in Pittsburgh, and the wagering market is presenting specific opportunities for those analyzing position totals in the first round. While many draft lines move quickly based on public information, analysis from FOX Sports suggests there are still viable plays regarding the number of quarterbacks and cornerbacks selected on Day 1.

The most prominent development in the first-round projections is the status of Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who is widely expected to be the first overall selection by the Las Vegas Raiders. This projection is bolstered by the Raiders’ signing of veteran center Tyler Linderbaum, a move intended to provide stability for a young franchise quarterback.

The Quarterback Market and Ty Simpson

With Mendoza likely to go first, betting focus has shifted to whether a second quarterback will be taken in the first round. A specific wager of Over 1.5 quarterbacks in the first round is currently available at -130.

View this post on Instagram about Simpson, First Round

Alabama’s Ty Simpson is identified as the primary candidate to trigger this over. Several teams, including the New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, and Pittsburgh Steelers, are noted for lacking franchise quarterbacks on their current rosters and could view Simpson as a long-term solution.

Strategic positioning is a key factor in Simpson’s potential first-round slide or trade-up. The New York Jets hold the first pick of the second round, which kicks off Day 2 on April 24. This position is considered high-value real estate because it allows a team to draft a quarterback without the fifth-year option and ensures no other team can pick before them once the first round concludes.

If Simpson remains available as the first round enters the 20s, teams may be incentivized to trade up to secure him before the Jets have the opportunity to select him at the start of the second round.

Cornerback Projections and Odds

Another targeted betting opportunity involves the number of defensive backs selected early, specifically a wager on Over 4.5 cornerbacks in the first round at +350.

Data from DraftKings Sportsbook indicates that four cornerbacks are currently expected to be first-round picks. This group includes Mansoor Delane, who is regarded as a top-10 pick, as well as Jermod McCoy (-4000), Colton Hood (-350), and Chris Johnson of San Diego State (-150).

The fifth potential cornerback is Avieon Terrell, who currently holds odds of +120 to be a first-round selection. The value of the cornerback position often leads teams to select one as a default if they are uncertain of other needs.

The Kansas City Chiefs are highlighted as having a desperate need at the position. If the Chiefs utilize their ninth overall pick on a pass rusher, they could potentially target a cornerback later in the first round. The Seattle Seahawks, picking at 32, are mentioned as a team that could select a corner to close out the first round.

2026 Draft Landscape

The draft will follow a three-day schedule in Pittsburgh: the first round takes place April 23, followed by Rounds 2 and 3 on April 24, and Rounds 4 through 7 on April 25.

Five teams will enter the 2026 draft without a first-round selection: the Jacksonville Jaguars, Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, and Denver Broncos.

Other early projections for the first round include Arvell Reese, an edge rusher from Ohio State, potentially going to the New York Jets at pick 2, and Francis Mauigoa, an offensive tackle from Miami, potentially going to the Arizona Cardinals at pick 3.