NFL Week 11 Betting Insights: Smart Money Trends and Key Matchups

NFL Week 11 Betting Insights: Smart Money Trends and Key Matchups

November 18, 2024 Catherine Williams - Chief Editor Entertainment

This week, NFL Week 11 includes 12 games. Let’s look at the betting trends based on data from VSiN and Circa Sports to identify wise money movements.

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Rams vs. Patriots: The Rams (4-5) just ended a three-game win streak with a loss to the Dolphins, while the Patriots (3-7) won against the Bears. The line opened at Rams -6.5 but has dropped to -4.5, signaling support for the Patriots, despite 68% public betting on the Rams. Circa Sports shows the Patriots with only 41% of bets but 71% of spread dollars, indicating sharp money backing them. The Patriots have a 12-7 ATS record this season as dogs of 4 points or more coming off a win. Weather conditions are favorable, with clear skies and mild temperatures.

Falcons vs. Broncos: The Falcons (6-4) lost to the Saints, and the Broncos (5-5) dropped their last two games. The line opened at Falcons -2 but shifted to Broncos -2. This suggests professional support for the Broncos at home. Despite receiving only 53% of spread bets, Denver has 65% of spread dollars. Non-conference favorites have a strong record, and the Broncos have a defensive advantage. The total has also moved from 43.5 to 44.5, with sharps backing the over.

Chiefs vs. Bills: The Chiefs (9-0) narrowly beat the Broncos, while the Bills (8-2) have won five straight. The line opened evenly but has moved to Bills -2. The Bills have 44% of bets but 55% of spread dollars, indicating sharp money backing them. The Bills are historically strong as home favorites. Josh Allen has an impressive track record as a home favorite. The total has decreased from 46.5 to 46, with sharp support for the under.

Bengals vs. Chargers: The Bengals (4-6) lost to the Ravens, while the Chargers (6-3) won against the Titans. The Chargers opened as -1 favorites, but lopsided betting on the Bengals has not moved the line past -1.5 because professional bettors are backing the Chargers. The Chargers have a significant defensive edge. The total opened at 45 and has increased to 48, with historical trends favoring the under in high-scoring games.