NFL Week 11 Betting Insights: Smart Money Trends and Key Matchups
- Let's look at the betting trends based on data from VSiN and Circa Sports to identify wise money movements.
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- Patriots: The Rams (4-5) just ended a three-game win streak with a loss to the Dolphins, while the Patriots (3-7) won against the Bears.
This week, NFL Week 11 includes 12 games. Let’s look at the betting trends based on data from VSiN and Circa Sports to identify wise money movements.
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Rams vs. Patriots: The Rams (4-5) just ended a three-game win streak with a loss to the Dolphins, while the Patriots (3-7) won against the Bears. The line opened at Rams -6.5 but has dropped to -4.5, signaling support for the Patriots, despite 68% public betting on the Rams. Circa Sports shows the Patriots with only 41% of bets but 71% of spread dollars, indicating sharp money backing them. The Patriots have a 12-7 ATS record this season as dogs of 4 points or more coming off a win. Weather conditions are favorable, with clear skies and mild temperatures.
Falcons vs. Broncos: The Falcons (6-4) lost to the Saints, and the Broncos (5-5) dropped their last two games. The line opened at Falcons -2 but shifted to Broncos -2. This suggests professional support for the Broncos at home. Despite receiving only 53% of spread bets, Denver has 65% of spread dollars. Non-conference favorites have a strong record, and the Broncos have a defensive advantage. The total has also moved from 43.5 to 44.5, with sharps backing the over.
Chiefs vs. Bills: The Chiefs (9-0) narrowly beat the Broncos, while the Bills (8-2) have won five straight. The line opened evenly but has moved to Bills -2. The Bills have 44% of bets but 55% of spread dollars, indicating sharp money backing them. The Bills are historically strong as home favorites. Josh Allen has an impressive track record as a home favorite. The total has decreased from 46.5 to 46, with sharp support for the under.
Bengals vs. Chargers: The Bengals (4-6) lost to the Ravens, while the Chargers (6-3) won against the Titans. The Chargers opened as -1 favorites, but lopsided betting on the Bengals has not moved the line past -1.5 because professional bettors are backing the Chargers. The Chargers have a significant defensive edge. The total opened at 45 and has increased to 48, with historical trends favoring the under in high-scoring games.