What’s Happening?

As of October 9, 2024, the National hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a developing area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea, near the Yucatan Peninsula. This system has a high probability of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 48-72 hours. The NHC issued advisories indicating a 70% chance of formation through the next 48 hours and an 80% chance through 72 hours National Hurricane Center.

Projected Path and Potential Impacts

Current forecasts suggest the system will likely move northward, potentially making landfall along the western coast of Florida, possibly in the Big Bend region, by late October 11th or October 12th. Though, the exact track remains uncertain, and shifts are possible. The cone of uncertainty, as depicted by the NHC, extends across a wide area of the Gulf coast, including portions of Florida, Alabama, and Louisiana. Understanding the Cone of uncertainty is crucial for preparedness.

Key potential impacts include:

• Heavy Rainfall: Widespread rainfall of 4-8 inches is possible, with isolated areas receiving up to 12 inches, leading to flash flooding.
• Storm Surge: A storm surge of 2-4 feet is possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, especially in vulnerable areas.
• Strong Winds: Tropical storm-force winds (39-73 mph) are likely near the center of the storm, potentially causing power outages and structural damage.
• Rip Currents: Dangerous rip currents are already developing along Florida’s Atlantic and Gulf coasts and will likely worsen.

The timing of the storm’s arrival coincides with high tide cycles, which could exacerbate storm surge impacts. Residents in low-lying coastal areas should be prepared to evacuate if ordered by local authorities.

Affected Areas

The following areas are currently under close watch:

This table is based on current forecasts and is subject to change.Refer to local National Weather Service offices for the most up-to-date information.