Northern Lights Forecast 2024: States to See Aurora Tonight & This Week
- Aurora activity is expected to be visible across parts of North America tonight and tomorrow night, February 6th and 7th, 2026.
- The SWPC utilizes a model called OVATION (Oval Variation, Assessment, Tracking, Intensity, and Online Nowcasting) to predict the intensity and location of the aurora.
- Currently, the aurora forecast for the next several days, through February 28, 2026, indicates low activity with a Kp index of 2.
Aurora activity is expected to be visible across parts of North America tonight and tomorrow night, February 6th and 7th, 2026. While conditions are currently relatively quiet, forecasts indicate a potential increase in visibility, particularly in northern regions. The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) provides ongoing forecasts and real-time data to help observers determine the best locations and times to view the aurora borealis, also known as the Northern Lights.
Understanding the Aurora Forecast
The SWPC utilizes a model called OVATION (Oval Variation, Assessment, Tracking, Intensity, and Online Nowcasting) to predict the intensity and location of the aurora. Developed at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, OVATION is an empirical model that relies on observed geomagnetic activity. The forecasts are based on the maximum predicted geomagnetic activity (Kp index) between 6 PM and 6 AM US Central Time. The aurora is typically displayed as a green oval centered on Earth’s magnetic pole, turning red when the forecast indicates increased intensity.
Currently, the aurora forecast for the next several days, through February 28, 2026, indicates low activity with a Kp index of 2. However, the forecast does show an increase to a Kp of 3 beginning on , and continuing through . A significant jump to a Kp of 5 is predicted for , followed by Kp values of 4 for several days thereafter.
What the Kp Index Means
The Kp index is a global geomagnetic disturbance index that measures the level of geomagnetic activity. It ranges from 0 to 9, with higher numbers indicating greater disturbance. A Kp of 2 suggests minor geomagnetic activity, while a Kp of 5 indicates a moderate geomagnetic storm. The higher the Kp index, the further south the aurora can be seen.
Visibility and Viewing Conditions
The aurora is not visible during daylight hours and is best observed after sunset or before sunrise. It doesn’t need to be directly overhead; under bright conditions, it can be seen from up to 1000 km away. The SWPC’s Aurora Viewline maps show the southernmost locations from which the aurora may be visible on the northern horizon. These maps are updated continuously.
A short-term forecast, providing a 30 to 90-minute prediction of aurora location and intensity, is also available. This forecast considers the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth. The SWPC’s new Aurora Dashboard provides a centralized location for all aurora-related products and information.
Impacts of Geomagnetic Activity
While visually stunning, geomagnetic activity associated with the aurora can impact several technologies. The SWPC notes that the aurora is an indicator of geomagnetic storm conditions and can affect HF radio communication, GPS/GNSS satellite navigation, and electric power transmission systems due to ground-induced currents.
Where to Find More Information
For those interested in viewing the aurora, the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks also provides aurora forecasts. The SWPC’s website (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/) offers a wealth of information, including the Aurora Viewline, the 30-Minute Forecast, and the Aurora Dashboard. The Aurora Dashboard (https://www.spaceweather.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental) is designed as a one-stop shop for space weather information.
Reports indicate that Alaska, Canada, and Greenland are expected to have the best viewing opportunities this week as solar activity rises. However, with the predicted increase in the Kp index over the next few days, observers in lower latitudes, potentially as far south as the northern United States, may also have a chance to witness the aurora. Several sources report that 11 US states may see the aurora on , February 5th, 2026, and potentially more states as activity increases.
The aurora remains a captivating phenomenon, offering a visible connection to the dynamic processes occurring in space and their influence on Earth.