NYSE on High Alert: Will September’s Employment Trends Spark a Market Slowdown

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employment indicators released one after another this week, especially the September employment trends of the Department of Labor, which will be announced on the 4th of next month (local time). A broker is looking at the monitor with a serious expression while Jerome Powell’s press conference of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is being broadcast on the 18th at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). AP Union” fetchpriority=”high”/>

The trend of the New York stock market is expected to be influenced by the employment indicators released one after another this week, especially the September employment trends of the Department of Labor, which will be announced on the 4th of next month (local time). A broker is looking at the monitor with a serious expression while Jerome Powell’s press conference of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is being broadcast on the 18th at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). AP Union

Although the New York stock market continues its all-time high, concerns are growing that employment will be hindered.

The New York stock market, which recorded gains for three consecutive weeks thanks to the bold 0.5% p interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September, which had the worst performance of the year, is expected to struggle in October.

The New York stock market’s Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 exceeded 42,000 and 5,700, respectively, in September. This is the first time in history.

However, the September employment trends to be announced by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 4th of next month (local time) are expected to turn this trend around.

There are predictions that if new employment is below expectations, it will drive the market into an abyss, while if it is above expectations, the market reaction will be muted.

employment indicator parade

Employment indicators are pouring in on the New York stock market this week.

On the 1st of next month, the Ministry of Labor will release the August Job Recruitment and Turnover Survey (JOLTS), and the next day, on the 2nd, employment service company ADP will release private employment statistics for September.

The Ministry of Labor’s weekly statistics on new applicants for unemployment benefits will be released a day later, on the 3rd.

The highlight is the September employment trend announced by the Ministry of Labor on the weekend of the 4th.

It can be said to be a comprehensive version of various employment statistics announced from the 1st.

Economists’ outlook is not bad.

According to Dow Jones, Wall Street economists predict that the number of new jobs in September will be 144,000, an increase of 2,000 from August’s figure of 142,000.

The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, the same as in August.

Insensitive to good news, sensitive to bad news

However, there are predictions that the stock market will not react favorably.

Adam Tunquist, chief technology strategist (CTS) at LPL Financial, told CNBC that the key theme running through the stock market this week is labor market indicators, and expressed concern that if new employment in September is lower than expected, the market will face a frost.

This is increasing concerns that the soft landing scenario, in which growth will slow and inflation will also decrease, but the economy will avoid a recession, will fail.

On the other hand, Tunquist predicted that if a larger-than-expected amount of new employment is announced, it will be difficult to act as large-scale positive news.

This is because the stock market has already soared to an all-time high, so there is little room for further upside.

Turnquist predicted that if employment indicators exceed expectations, the market is likely to react calmly.

Even if it struggles in October, it will surpass 6,000 by the end of the year.

Experts point out that October is seasonally the second worst month for the New York stock market.

Since September recorded the worst performance of the year, there was a big upward trend, so it is expected that this good luck will not last in October.

Turnquist predicted that the S&P 500 would fall next month and advised buying at the bottom if it falls to 5,400, the September low.

However, he added that the possibility of the S&P 500 falling to 5200, the 200-day moving average point, cannot be ruled out.

Stock Almanac editor Jeff Hershey was also pessimistic, predicting that the S&P 500 could fall 5 to 10 percent in October.

However, Hershey expressed optimism that even if the stock market struggles in October, it will rebound later and that it is possible to hit 6,000 for the first time in history by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to give a speech this week.

Chairman Powell will attend and deliver a speech at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) held in Nashville, Tennessee, on the 30th, at the end of this month.

dympna@fnnews.com Reporter Song Kyung-jae

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