Tasmania’s political landscape is undergoing a significant shift, with the rise of the One Nation party threatening to upend the established order ahead of the state election. Recent polling data reveals a tightening race between the incumbent Liberal government and the Labor opposition, fueled by One Nation’s unexpectedly strong debut performance.
The latest EMRS quarterly poll, conducted on , shows the Liberals at 29%, a five-point drop since November. Labor trails closely behind at 23%, while the Greens and independents both garner 15% of the vote, with other parties accounting for the remaining 3%. This marks the narrowest margin between the Liberals and Labor since the state election last year, according to Pulse Tasmania.
One Nation’s emergence as a significant force in Tasmanian politics is particularly noteworthy. The party secured 14% of the primary vote in the poll, a result that has significantly altered the dynamics of the campaign. While this figure falls short of the party’s federal support, EMRS managing director Brad Stansfield noted that it represents a substantial debut for One Nation at the state level.
“While impressive, One Nation’s 14% is a full ten points behind their result in the concurrent federal poll we ran,” Stansfield said. “at 29% the Liberal primary vote is the equal lowest it’s been since their pre-election campaign nadir in May last year.”
The shift in voter preferences is prompting close scrutiny from both major parties. The Liberals, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, are facing increased pressure as their lead dwindles. Rockliff currently maintains a 14-point advantage over Labor’s Josh Willie as preferred premier, with 40% support compared to Willie’s 26%. However, a substantial 31% of voters remain undecided, indicating a considerable degree of volatility in the electorate.
The situation in Tasmania mirrors a broader trend observed in South Australia, where One Nation is also gaining traction. Analysis of the South Australian political scene suggests that the Liberals are facing a potential “peak humiliation” at the upcoming state election, with One Nation potentially positioned to become the official opposition. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported that One Nation is “clearly going through a moment” according to SA Premier Peter Malinauskas.
The Guardian reported that, based on recent polls, the Liberal party in South Australia may not retain a single lower house seat. This potential outcome has raised concerns within the party, particularly given the dominance of the Labor party under Premier Peter Malinauskas. The surge in support for One Nation is adding another layer of complexity to the electoral landscape.
The parallels between One Nation’s current rise and the emergence of SA-Best, led by Nick Xenophon in 2018, have not gone unnoticed. Antony Green, a former ABC chief elections analyst, has pointed to the similarities, questioning whether the major parties will directly attack One Nation or attempt to ignore them during the campaign. In 2018, both Labor and the Liberals actively targeted SA-Best and its leader, Nick Xenophon.
The implications of One Nation’s growing influence extend beyond Tasmania and South Australia. The party’s success in these states will be closely watched by national observers as a test of its broader appeal and potential for future gains. The party has already established four branches across Tasmania’s five federal electorates, with plans to formally register at the state level in the coming days, according to Tasmanian One Nation representative Lee Hanson.
The rise of One Nation presents a challenge to the traditional two-party system in Australia. The party’s focus on issues such as cost of living, immigration, and regional development resonates with a segment of the electorate that feels overlooked by the major parties. The ability of One Nation to capitalize on these concerns could reshape the political landscape in the coming months and years.
The situation in South Australia is particularly acute, with the Liberal party facing the prospect of a significant defeat. The party’s internal divisions and the taint of turmoil within the federal party are contributing to its struggles. The emergence of One Nation as a viable alternative is further complicating matters, potentially siphoning off votes from the Liberals and exacerbating their challenges.
As the election campaigns in Tasmania and South Australia intensify, the major parties will need to carefully consider their strategies for addressing the rise of One Nation. Whether they choose to directly confront the party or attempt to marginalize it remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: One Nation is no longer a fringe player in Australian politics and its impact on the electoral outcomes in these states could be substantial.
