Ongoing Conflict: Ukraine Launches ATACMS Missiles Against Russia

Zelensky’s Wish Fulfilled: ATACMS Rockets Fired at Russian Targets

This week, President Zelensky saw a major wish come true. For the first time, ATACMS rockets were launched from Ukraine at targets in Russia. This event marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. In addition, Ukrainian forces reportedly launched the first Storm Shadow missiles at Russian military sites as well.

The use of these Western missiles signifies a new chapter in military support for Ukraine. In response to these actions, President Putin has officially adjusted Russia’s nuclear doctrine.

Under the new rules, Russia may view an attack using American or British missiles as a joint assault against itself. The implications of this doctrine, whether it is a bluff or a credible threat, will unfold in the coming months. Governments in Washington, London, and Paris remain tight-lipped about the potential use of their delivered missiles in this manner.

Zelensky has advocated since 2022 for unrestricted use of three types of attack missiles. Ukraine already possesses ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, while there is still uncertainty regarding German Taurus missiles.

Comparison of Missiles

ATACMS is the only ballistic missile among the three. It is launched from ground-based installations and travels high in an arc to its target. In contrast, SCALP/Storm Shadow and Taurus are cruise missiles launched from aircraft. They fly low and can be difficult for radar systems to detect.

According to missile expert Fabian Hoffmann, ATACMS can reach speeds up to three times the speed of sound, making it considerably faster than Storm Shadow. However, it is slightly less accurate than the European cruise missiles.

ATACMS is particularly effective against spread-out targets, such as large groups of troops or aircraft on a runway. It can carry a cluster munitions warhead, a type of weapon that has drawn criticism due to its use by both Russia and Ukraine.

Conversely, Taurus and Storm Shadow are better suited for concentrated targets, capable of penetrating deep underground bunkers. They could potentially be used to destroy critical infrastructure, such as the bridge connecting occupied Crimea to Russia.

Challenges with Taurus and Storm Shadow

The Taurus missile has a range of 500 kilometers, which raises concerns about the possibility of striking Moscow. German Chancellor Scholz has expressed reservations about this risk, thus keeping the Taurus missiles within Germany for now.

Storm Shadow can theoretically reach up to 550 kilometers, although its export version has a limit of 250 kilometers. There are suggestions that Ukraine may have received a version with a longer range, restricted politically rather than technically.

Currently, the criteria for Ukraine to use SCALP or ATACMS missiles against Russia remain unclear. Discussions on this topic take place behind closed doors by anonymous officials.

Impact on Ukraine’s Military Strategy

For Ukraine, this development is a significant boost. It empowers the military to launch coordinated attacks similar to those conducted by Russia, utilizing drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles from different directions. Such operations are challenging to defend against effectively.

However, experts caution that these long-range capabilities will not radically shift the outcome of the war in Ukraine’s favor. Delays in the U.S. response have allowed Russia to prepare for these missile attacks.

Military analysts assert that simply having these missiles does not guarantee success. Previous instances indicate that multiple ATACMS may be needed to ensure a target is hit. The future of Ukraine’s military strategy largely depends on the quantity of missiles received and potential changes in U.S. political leadership.

In summary, the introduction of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles provides Ukraine with valuable offensive capabilities. Nonetheless, the broader context of the conflict and the need for robust military support will dictate the effectiveness of these new weapons.