OPEC Maintains 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecast
OPEC Maintains Oil demand Growth forecast for 2025 and 2026
Table of Contents
- OPEC Maintains Oil demand Growth forecast for 2025 and 2026
- OPEC’s Oil Demand Forecast: Key Questions Answered
- What is OPEC’s outlook on global oil demand for 2025 and 2026?
- What’s driving the projected increase in oil demand?
- Which regions will primarily contribute to the rising oil demand?
- What are OPEC’s planned production adjustments, and how might they affect oil prices?
- How did OPEC+ production fare in February?
- How does OECD vs. non-OECD demand factor into OPEC’s forecast?
- what are the current factors influencing crude oil prices?
- Summary of OPEC Oil Demand Forecast
The Institution of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has released its latest monthly report, reaffirming its oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026. The report, published on Wednesday, indicates that the anticipated growth will be largely driven by air and road transportation sectors. This estimate remains unchanged from the forecast issued in February.
Global Oil Demand to Reach 105.2 mb/d in 2025
According to the report, global oil consumption is expected to reach 105.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025. This follows a consumption rate of 103.75 mb/d in 2024. OPEC revises its forecasts monthly, adapting to prevailing economic conditions.
Key Highlights:
- 2025 Demand: 105.2 million barrels per day
- Growth Driver: Strong demand from air transport
- supporting factors: Healthy road mobility,industrial,construction,and agricultural sectors
growth Driven by Air Transport and Road mobility
The oil exporting countries’ cartel anticipates a rise of 1.4 million barrels per day, fueled by “a strong demand for air transport” and the “good health” of road mobility, as well as contributions from the industrial, construction, and agricultural sectors.
Regional Contributions to Oil Demand
A important portion of this increase, approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, is “driven by China, other Asian countries, and India, and supported by the Middle East and Latin America,” according to OPEC.
2026 Forecast: Continued Growth
Looking ahead to 2026, OPEC projects a similar growth in oil demand, estimating an increase of 1.4 million barrels per day. This growth is expected to be almost exclusively driven by countries outside the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Growth). Global consumption is projected to reach 106.6 million barrels per day.
OPEC+ Production in February
In February, the production from OPEC member countries and their allies within OPEC+ reached 41 million barrels per day, marking an increase of 363,000 barrels from the previous month.
OPEC+ Production Strategy
OPEC+ recently confirmed its plan to gradually increase crude oil production starting in April.This strategic shift led to a drop in oil prices, occurring shortly after calls for lower prices at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 23.
Planned Production Adjustments
According to OPEC’s plan, an initial tranche of voluntary cuts amounting to 2.2 million barrels per day is set to be gradually reintroduced to the market starting in April. This will be implemented at a rate of 120,000 additional barrels per day each month over an 18-month period.
Current Oil Prices
Crude oil prices are currently hovering around 70 euros per barrel, weighed down by concerns regarding the health of the U.S. economy and an imbalance between abundant supply and reduced demand.
OPEC’s Oil Demand Forecast: Key Questions Answered
What is OPEC’s outlook on global oil demand for 2025 and 2026?
OPEC maintains a positive outlook, projecting strong growth in global oil demand for both 2025 and 2026. The institution expects demand to reach 105.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 106.6 mb/d in 2026. These forecasts underscore OPEC’s belief in sustained demand growth in the coming years.
What’s driving the projected increase in oil demand?
Air Travel: A major factor is the anticipated strong demand for air travel, which is expected to considerably boost jet fuel consumption.
Road Transportation: Healthy road mobility, indicating robust economic activity and personal travel, also contributes substantially to the increasing demand.
Industrial,Construction,and Agriculture: These sectors further bolster oil demand,reflecting overall economic growth and growth worldwide.
Which regions will primarily contribute to the rising oil demand?
A notable portion of the increased demand,about 1.3 million barrels per day, is expected from:
China: as a major economic powerhouse, China’s energy needs play a crucial role.
Other Asian Countries: Emerging economies in Asia are experiencing rapid growth, leading to higher energy consumption.
India: India’s expanding economy and population drive increased demand for oil.
Middle East and Latin America: Supportive contributions are also expected from these regions,reflecting their economic activities and energy needs.
What are OPEC’s planned production adjustments, and how might they affect oil prices?
OPEC+ plans to gradually increase crude oil production starting in April. This adjustment involves reintroducing 2.2 million barrels per day to the market, incrementing by 120,000 barrels daily over 18 months. This strategic shift is designed to balance supply and demand but initially led to a drop in oil prices, especially amid concerns about the U.S. economy and global supply imbalances.
How did OPEC+ production fare in February?
In February,OPEC+ countries collectively produced 41 million barrels of oil per day. This represents an increase of 363,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month, illustrating the group’s capacity to adjust production levels in response to market conditions.
How does OECD vs. non-OECD demand factor into OPEC’s forecast?
OPEC anticipates that the growth in oil demand in 2026 will be almost exclusively driven by countries outside the OECD(Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Growth). This shows that developing economies are fueling the demand increase.According to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook, non-OECD oil demand is projected to increase by 9.6 mb/d between 2023 and 2029, reaching 66.2 mb/d, while OECD demand is set to remain around 46 mb/d over the same period [3].
what are the current factors influencing crude oil prices?
Currently,crude oil prices are hovering around 70 euros per barrel due to:
U.S.Economic Concerns: Worries about the health of the U.S. economy weigh on prices.
* Supply-Demand Imbalance: An oversupply of crude oil coupled with reduced demand is exerting downward pressure on prices.
Summary of OPEC Oil Demand Forecast
| Year | Global Oil Demand (mb/d) | Growth Driver | Key Contributing Regions |
| :— | :———————— | :—————————————— | :——————————– |
| 2025 | 105.2 | Air transport, road mobility | China, Asia, India, Middle East, Latin America |
| 2026 | 106.6 | Countries outside the OECD (Developing countries) | Non-OECD countries |