OPEC+ Postpones Planned Oil Output Increases Amid Weakening Demand

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its oil market outlook in a report published on September 6, following OPEC+’s decision to postpone planned oil output increases in October and November.

The decision by OPEC+ to delay the planned oil output increases comes after crude prices hit a nine-month low. The group of major producers also stated that it could pause or reverse the production increases if needed, citing concerns over weakening energy demand.

Despite the adjustment, Goldman Sachs maintains its Brent crude oil price range of $70-$85/barrel and forecasts Brent oil prices at $74/barrel in December 2025. The investment bank believes that the impact of OPEC+’s slight supply cuts in the coming months will be balanced by weakening energy demand in China and a rapid recovery in Libyan supply.

However, Goldman Sachs notes that there is still a risk that oil prices will fall below the range of $70-85/barrel due to high spare capacity and the possibility of weakening demand due to the situation in China, as well as potential trade tensions.

As of the end of the trading week on September 6, Brent crude futures fell $1.63 (2.24%) to $71.06/barrel, the lowest level since December 2021. US light sweet crude (WTI) also fell $1.48 (2.14%) to $67.67/barrel, the lowest level since June 2023.

Key Takeaways:

• OPEC+ postpones planned oil output increases in October and November.
• Goldman Sachs maintains its Brent crude oil price range of $70-$85/barrel.
• Weakening energy demand in China and a rapid recovery in Libyan supply are expected to balance the impact of OPEC+’s supply cuts.
• High spare capacity and potential trade tensions pose a risk to oil prices falling below $70-85/barrel.