OPEC+ to Boost Oil Production Amid Regional Conflict

OPEC+ agreed on April 5, 2026, to increase its collective oil production quota by 206,000 barrels per day for May. The decision follows a similar 206,000-barrel-per-day increase that was approved on March 1, 2026, immediately following initial U.S. And Israeli strikes against targets in Iran.

Despite the agreement, the increase is largely symbolic. Key members are currently unable to raise production due to the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran, which has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz since the end of February 2026.

Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Closure

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, described as the world’s most important oil route, has severely curtailed oil flows from the Persian Gulf. This disruption has directly affected the exports of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq—the only OPEC+ members capable of significantly increasing production prior to the conflict.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), producers in the Gulf collectively reduced output by approximately 10 million barrels per day in mid-March 2026, representing roughly 10% of the global supply.

The proposed quota increase of 206,000 barrels per day represents less than 2% of the supply disrupted by the closure of the strait. Analysts and OPEC+ sources suggest the move is intended to signal a readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens, rather than providing immediate relief to the market.

In reality, it adds very few barrels to the market

Dr Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy

Market Volatility and Energy Pricing

The supply disruption has caused crude prices to surge to a four-year high, reaching nearly US$120 a barrel. This spike has led to soaring prices for transport fuels, creating financial pressure for businesses and consumers globally and prompting some governments to take action to conserve existing supplies.

In a statement issued following a ministerial market monitoring committee meeting on April 5, 2026, OPEC+ emphasized that disruptions to export routes and attacks on infrastructure increase market volatility and undermine the alliance’s efforts to stabilize the market.

Long-term Recovery Outlook

OPEC+ has warned that the recovery of energy supplies will be slow. The group noted that widespread damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East will continue to constrain supply long after hostilities cease.

Restoring damaged energy infrastructure to full capacity is costly and time-consuming

OPEC+ ministerial market monitoring committee

Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, eight major OPEC+ members had been in the process of gradually restoring output that had been halted in 2023. These members had held production steady through the first quarter of 2026 before the current conflict necessitated quota adjustments.