Opta Supercomputer Predicts Liverpool vs Man City & Key Stats

Anfield is set to host a compelling Premier League clash on Sunday, February 8th, as Liverpool welcome Manchester City. While the fixture has historically been a title-deciding showdown, this season presents a different dynamic, though no less competitive. Liverpool, the reigning champions, are looking to regain momentum after a difficult title defense, while Manchester City aims to close the gap on league leaders Arsenal.

According to Opta’s supercomputer, Liverpool enter the match as favorites, boasting a 43% win probability. Manchester City’s chances are calculated at 30.3%, with a 26.7% likelihood of a draw. This prediction reflects Liverpool’s strong home record against City, having lost only once in their last 22 Premier League home games against their rivals – a 1-4 defeat in February 2021, which notably occurred when Liverpool were the reigning champions.

The historical context of this rivalry is undeniable. For much of the past decade, Liverpool versus Manchester City has been *the* fixture in the Premier League calendar, defined by the tactical battles between Jürgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola. Their teams consistently challenged for the top spot, producing a series of memorable encounters. Last season, Liverpool decisively overcame City, winning both encounters 2-0 en route to securing their second Premier League title, a season where City ultimately fell short in the title race.

However, the stakes feel somewhat altered this season. Manchester City, currently sitting with 47 points, are targeting a league double over Liverpool, having already secured a 3-0 victory at the Etihad Stadium in November 2025. Despite not replicating Liverpool’s dominant title-winning form of last season, City remain firmly in contention, trailing league leaders Arsenal by six points – a gap that could extend to nine points before kickoff on Sunday. Their recent 2-2 draw against Tottenham Hotspur, after surrendering a 2-0 lead, highlighted their vulnerability but also their resilience.

Liverpool’s campaign, in contrast, has been marked by inconsistency. Currently sixth in the standings with 39 points, they are 14 points behind Arsenal. A recent 4-1 thrashing of Newcastle United provided a much-needed boost, ending a difficult start to 2026, but the overall picture remains one of a team struggling to replicate the standards of their title-winning season.

A key individual battle to watch will be Erling Haaland’s performance. The City striker has yet to find the back of the net in any of his three previous Premier League away games against Liverpool, a statistic that Guardiola will undoubtedly be keen to change. Liverpool’s defense will be focused on containing the prolific Norwegian, knowing his ability to turn a game in an instant.

Looking further back, Manchester City are aiming to achieve something they haven’t done in nearly nine decades: win both the home and away fixtures against Liverpool in the same league season. The last time they accomplished this feat was during the 1936-37 season. This historical context adds another layer of intrigue to Sunday’s encounter.

the record books show that West Ham United were the last team to defeat Liverpool in both matches of a Premier League season without conceding a goal, achieving this in the 2015-16 campaign. Liverpool will be determined to avoid a similar fate against a determined Manchester City side.

The match at Anfield promises to be a captivating contest, blending historical rivalry with current league standings. While Liverpool are favored by the Opta supercomputer, Manchester City’s ambition and tactical prowess make them a formidable opponent. The outcome will undoubtedly have significant implications for both teams’ respective seasons, and for the broader Premier League title race.