Mexico City – The political landscape in Mexico is shifting as the opposition Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) strategizes for the 2027 midterm elections. Internal assessments, as reported by El Heraldo de México, suggest a focused plan to regain control of key mayoralties in Mexico City, retain power in states like Chihuahua, Querétaro, and Aguascalientes, and challenge the dominance of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena party in the Chamber of Deputies.
The PAN’s strategy hinges on the belief that midterm elections historically favor the opposition, and that the absence of López Obrador – who will no longer be on the ballot or featured in campaign advertising – will level the playing field. The thinking is that without his pervasive presence, the election will become more focused on candidates and their platforms, rather than simply benefiting from the “AMLO” brand.
This assessment aligns with a broader perception that public sentiment may be turning against Morena, fueled by accusations of corruption, alleged ties to drug cartels (“narcogobiernos”), internal strife, and perceived betrayals. The PAN believes this presents an opportunity to capitalize on fatigue and disillusionment with the current administration.
However, the party acknowledges past failures, including a loss of the presidency, which they attribute to internal divisions, a disconnect from the electorate, and campaigns that were overly focused on opposing Morena rather than articulating a positive vision. The alliance with the PRI, under Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas, is also seen as a significant misstep, damaging the PAN’s credibility – a label of “PRIAN” that proved difficult to shake.
Jorge Romero’s recent efforts to rebrand the party are presented as more than cosmetic; they represent a strategic shift towards greater inclusivity. The PAN is opening its candidate selection process to the general public, allowing any qualified individual to compete for a nomination under the party banner. The goal is to present a more open and accessible image – “less club, more platform.”
In Mexico City, the PAN aims to retain control of the Benito Juárez, Miguel Hidalgo, Cuauhtémoc, Cuajimalpa, and Coyoacán boroughs, and aggressively contest Magdalena Contreras, Tlalpan, Azcapotzalco, and Álvaro Obregón. They also hope to secure enough seats in the local Congress to significantly weaken Morena’s influence. The reported decline in popularity of Clara Brugada, a key Morena figure, is seen as a potential opening.
While ambitious, the PAN’s plan isn’t considered impossible. However, the party recognizes that simply waiting for Morena to falter isn’t enough. They must demonstrate that they have learned from past mistakes and can govern effectively without arrogance or reliance on alliances that undermine their credibility. The party understands that in 2027, results will be the only persuasive form of campaign messaging.
Beyond the PAN’s strategy, internal divisions within Morena are also surfacing. According to El Heraldo de México, a debate is brewing between Ignacio Mier, the Morena coordinator in the Senate, and Ricardo Monreal, the leader of Morena in the Chamber of Deputies, regarding the upcoming electoral reform. Mier reportedly believes Morena doesn’t need the support of its allies – the PT and PVEM – while Monreal argues that excluding them would be a mistake.
This internal conflict highlights a broader challenge for Morena: balancing competing ambitions and maintaining unity as it navigates a potentially difficult electoral cycle. As one unnamed observer reportedly quipped, “Morena’s problem isn’t adding allies; it’s subtracting ambitions.”
The broader political context, as highlighted by web search results, reveals a recent shift in Mexican politics. The 2024 general election saw Claudia Sheinbaum of Morena elected president, solidifying the party’s dominance. However, the rise of Morena, founded by López Obrador, represents a significant break from the traditional party system, which was previously dominated by the PRI, PAN, and PRD. Prior to 2018, Mexico experienced a period of power-sharing among these three major parties. The 2024 election results, with Morena securing a commanding majority in both houses of Congress, demonstrate the extent of this shift.
external pressures, particularly from the United States under the Trump administration, are impacting Mexico’s economic policy. As reported by litci.org, Trump’s imposition of tariffs on goods from Mexico, coupled with demands related to immigration and the “war on drugs,” are forcing the Sheinbaum administration to adapt to U.S. Economic and geopolitical demands. This economic pressure is contributing to a risk of economic stagnation in Mexico, with the Bank of Mexico revising its growth forecast downward.
The Algoritmo survey, as reported by Mexico Daily Post, identifies Aguascalientes as a state where the PAN-PRI alliance is expected to retain control, currently governed by Teresa Jiménez. This suggests that while Morena holds national power, regional dynamics and alliances will play a crucial role in the 2027 elections.
