Patient Volume Forecasts: 10 Years Out | Becker’s Hospital Review
- The demand for health care services is projected to increase significantly across various sectors in the coming decade.
- Sg2's 2025 Impact of Change Forecast considered factors such as population shifts, epidemiological changes, economic influences, policy developments, and technological advancements.
- Tori Richie, senior director at Sg2 Intelligence, saeid health systems will need to adapt their physical and clinical operations to meet the changing care landscape.
Healthcare services are set for a decade of significant change; outpatient care is predicted to surge by 18%, influencing the trajectory of patient volume forecasts. In this vital forecast, inpatient services are expected to grow modestly, while post-acute care soars by 31%, particularly within home health. By 2035, virtual care will constitute a significant portion of patient interactions, which necessitates that healthcare organizations adapt their strategies. News Directory 3 understands the urgency of anticipating these shifts: the growth of cancer outpatient volumes will reach 18%.Health Systems should prepare for increased outpatient demands. Discover what’s next in healthcare.
Healthcare Services Demand Growth Expected Over Next Decade
The demand for health care services is projected to increase significantly across various sectors in the coming decade. A recent forecast indicates outpatient care will experience the most ample growth, while inpatient services will see a more moderate rise.This shift highlights evolving trends in how patients access and recieve medical treatment.
Sg2’s 2025 Impact of Change Forecast considered factors such as population shifts, epidemiological changes, economic influences, policy developments, and technological advancements. The forecasting model integrated national and institutional data, along with market trends, to project future healthcare needs.
Tori Richie, senior director at Sg2 Intelligence, saeid health systems will need to adapt their physical and clinical operations to meet the changing care landscape. Richie suggested health systems consider expanding their post-acute footprint and investing in remote patient monitoring or virtual nursing to scale home-based care.
Outpatient surgery volumes are expected to increase by 20% over the next 10 years. Inpatient care is projected to grow at a slower rate of 5%, though patient acuity is expected to rise, potentially increasing the complexity and cost of care. Post-acute care is set to expand by 31%, with home health services leading the way with a projected 24% increase.
Evaluation and management visits are forecast to grow by 16%, with virtual care visits comprising 19% of all such visits by 2035. The increasing use of GLP-1s is expected to slow discharges for patients with type 2 diabetes. Home and domiciliary hospice visits, along with home and domiciliary evaluation and management visits, are anticipated to see strong demand, growing by 43% and 33%, respectively.
Emergency department volumes are expected to increase by 5% by 2035, driven by a rise in emergent visits. urgent care visits, however, are projected to remain flat. Virtual visits, especially for new patients, are expected to account for 19% of all visits by 2035, indicating a continued shift toward telehealth and remote care.
While cancer outpatient volumes are expected to grow by 18%, inpatient volumes in this area will remain stable. Analysts noted the rising cancer prevalence in young adults, suggesting a greater need for health systems to develop targeted programs for diagnosis and treatment in this demographic. Pediatric care is also shifting toward outpatient services, with inpatient discharges declining by 1% and outpatient volumes growing by 8%.
What’s next
Health systems will likely focus on expanding outpatient facilities and investing in technology to support virtual care and remote monitoring. Addressing the rising prevalence of cancer in younger adults will also be a priority, requiring new and innovative approaches to diagnosis and treatment.