Poland Elections: Youth Vote Key to Victory | International
- As Poland heads into its presidential runoff, the youth vote, particularly the rising support for the right-wing Confederation party, could prove decisive.
- Polls indicated that nearly 35% of voters under 29 and almost 25% of those under 39 supported Slawomir Mentzen, a key figure in Confederation.
- maciej Górecki, an expert in electoral behavior at the University of Warsaw, characterized this support as a protest vote against the system and elites.
In Poland’s high-stakes presidential runoff, the youth vote is pivotal, with the right-wing Confederation party emerging as a key influence. With the Confederation candidate out of the race, the young voters’ allegiance is up for grabs between liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and conservative Karol Nawrocki. The primary_keyword, “youth vote,” reflects a desire for change, fueled by economic freedom and dissatisfaction with the existing political order. Secondary_keyword, “poland elections,” highlight the impact of this demographic, particularly confederation’s strong appeal among young men, who are drawn too the party’s anti-establishment views and positions on economic policies. News Directory 3 notes that Confederation’s online presence is more authentic. Will young voters fully back Nawrocki,or will Trzaskowski sway them? Discover what’s next in Polish politics.
Poland’s Youth Vote pivots to Right-Wing Confederation in Presidential Election
Updated May 31, 2025
As Poland heads into its presidential runoff, the youth vote, particularly the rising support for the right-wing Confederation party, could prove decisive. In the election’s first round, Confederation emerged as a favorite among young voters. Now, with their candidate out of the race, their allegiance is up for grabs in the contest between liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and ultraconservative Karol Nawrocki.
Polls indicated that nearly 35% of voters under 29 and almost 25% of those under 39 supported Slawomir Mentzen, a key figure in Confederation. Wojciech Machulski, a spokesman for Mentzen’s campaign, attributed this popularity to young people’s weariness of the established political order. He noted that generations have grown up seeing the civic Platform and Law and Justice parties alternate in power, fueling a desire for change and propelling Confederation into a notable political force.
maciej Górecki, an expert in electoral behavior at the University of Warsaw, characterized this support as a protest vote against the system and elites. He explained that many young people feel a lack of control over their lives,struggling with housing and job security. Mentzen, he said, offers simple solutions by blaming the state, attracting voters despite the party’s sometimes controversial libertarian positions, such as lower taxes and privatized healthcare.
Nikola Krawczyk, 19, highlighted Mentzen’s success as a businessman as a key factor in her support. “he knows how to earn money and surely can definately help others do the same,” she said.Wiktor wichary, 21, echoed this sentiment, expressing confidence in Mentzen’s abilities.
Though, not all young voters align with Confederation. Michal, 22, who works in a ministry, voted for Adrian Zandberg, representing the progressive Razem Party. “I also defend freedom, but only one is really free when you have economic security, and this security has to be provided by the State,” Michal said.
While Wichary values Confederation’s hard-line stance on borders and lower taxes, Krawczyk has reservations about the party’s views on the EU, LGBTQ+ rights, and abortion. According to ipsos, Confederation’s support is considerably higher among men (19.7%) than women (9.8%). machulski suggested biological factors might explain this disparity, while Górecki pointed to Mentzen’s appeal to men’s aspirations for business success.
Confederation’s effective use of social media, particularly TikTok, has also contributed to its popularity among young people. machulski noted that their voters distrust traditional media, finding Confederation’s online presence more authentic.
Machulski said that, like Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, Confederation has undergone a “de-demonization” process, distancing itself from its most controversial figures. However,the combined votes of right-wing candidates in the first round indicate a significant conservative sentiment in Poland,despite the liberal victory in the 2023 legislative elections.
andrzej Rychard, a sociologist from the Polish Academy of Sciences, believes Poland is moving toward modernity but acknowledges the slow pace of change. He suggests that the rise of the right is not necessarily due to increased radicalism but rather a disaffection from the center-left. The liberal victory in 2023, driven by women and young people, has faced disappointment due to unfulfilled promises, leading to lower participation in the first round.
Rychard anticipates that most Confederation voters will now support Nawrocki, while a smaller portion may lean toward Trzaskowski, and some may abstain. Machulski stated that their campaign has focused on attacking Trzaskowski, portraying him as a puppet of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Mentzen has not revealed his choice, but Wichary, despite agreeing with the Civic Platform on economic issues, will not vote for Trzaskowski due to his stance on abortion.
“freedom is fundamental for me. No one has the right to impose anything on anyone,” said Wiktor wichary, a 21-year-old Confederation voter.
What’s next
the outcome of the presidential election hinges on whether Trzaskowski can mobilize young voters and whether Confederation supporters will rally behind Nawrocki, abstain, or shift their support.