Poland’s Monetary Policy Council projects slower GDP growth by 2027

The central bank’s policy council projects that cooling wage growth, fading commodity pressures, and weaker consumer demand will help pull price growth down over the course of 2027.

Monetary Policy Guidelines and 2027 Inflation Outlook

Bankier.pl reported that policymakers expect price growth to remain slightly elevated during the second half of 2026 due to the unwinding of regulatory and tax measures in the fuel market. As those regulatory impacts fade, cost pressures from global raw material markets are anticipated to normalize.

GDP Growth and Labor Market Projections

Economic expansion in Poland is projected to hover near 3.6% in 2026, matching the pace of growth seen in 2025, before decelerating in 2027, according to Bankier.pl. EU fund absorptions and stronger investment activity will support the 2026 economy, though those gains will be partially offset by supply shocks tied to the Middle East conflict and a moderation in wage growth.

By 2027, gross domestic product growth is expected to slow further as investment momentum cools down. The labor market will remain relatively favorable with low unemployment, although wage growth is projected to continue its downward trend.

Geopolitical Risks and Fiscal Uncertainty

Several domestic and international risks could alter the central bank’s baseline trajectory. Bankier.pl highlighted that the future path of fiscal policy remains a domestic concern, driven by a high general government deficit and an expanding public debt. Externally, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine threaten energy supplies and could induce volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices. Additional uncertainties stem from economic conditions in the eurozone—particularly in Germany—alongside potential shifts in global trade policies and European industrial and climate regulations, including the planned expansion of the EU Emissions Trading System known as ETS2.