Polymarket Users Make Massive Profits From Timed US-Iran Ceasefire Bets

A group of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket earned hundreds of thousands of dollars by placing highly specific bets on a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The bets were placed shortly before the announcement of a two-week ceasefire on April 8, 2026.

The financial gains occurred despite a lack of public signals that a deal was imminent. Earlier on April 8, 2026, Donald Trump had escalated his rhetoric on social media, warning that a whole civilization will die tonight if Iran did not meet a demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by an 8:00 PM ET deadline.

The ceasefire was eventually announced by Donald Trump in a Truth Social post at approximately 6:30 PM ET on April 8, 2026.

Blockchain Analysis of Suspicious Bets

Analysis of publicly available blockchain data via the crypto analytics platform Dune reveals that at least 50 wallets placed substantial yes bets on April 8, 2026, before the announcement. For many of these wallets, these were the first bets ever placed.

Records from The Guardian highlight several specific instances of high-profit trades:

• One wallet, created at approximately 10:00 AM ET on April 8, 2026, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8¢, resulting in a profit of $200,000.
• Another wallet that joined the platform on April 6, 2026, earned a profit of $125,500 on the ceasefire event.
• A third wallet was created just 12 minutes before the Truth Social post and placed $31,908 in yes bets at 33.7¢, earning an estimated profit of $48,500.

On Polymarket, the buy-in for betting events ranges from $0 to $1 each, which represents the perceived percentage chance of an event occurring.

Market Impact and Current Status

According to Bloomberg, bets regarding the ceasefire have driven more than $170 million through Polymarket, marking it as one of the largest events on the platform. The timing and specificity of the winning bets have led to increased insider scrutiny.

As of April 9, 2026, the tenuous ceasefire deal appears to be in jeopardy. Reports from AP News indicate that Tehran has accused the Trump administration of major violations of the agreement.