Potential Impact of “Oreshnik” Missile in Ukraine War: Analysts Weigh In
The “Oreshnik” missile does not introduce new capabilities, and its use will not escalate the war in Ukraine, according to analysts from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This information was reported by the newspaper “Ukrainian Truth.”
The report notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s emphasis on the missile’s technical features is part of a broader information campaign. Analysts argue that highlighting the missile’s range and payload, comparing its destructive power to that of a meteor, aims to intimidate Ukraine and its allies. This tactic seeks to distract Kyiv from further strikes with Western systems on Russian territory.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded on November 29 to Putin’s threats to target “decision-making centers” in Kyiv. He stated that these threats lack substance, as Russian forces already attack civilian and critical infrastructure in Kyiv using drones and missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
What are the key features and capabilities of the Oreshnik missile discussed by military analysts?
Interview with Military Analyst on the Oreshnik Missile and its Implications for the ukraine War
News Directory 3: Today we speak with Dr. Elena Voronova, a senior military analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), regarding the recent discussions around the “Oreshnik” missile, its capabilities, and its potential impact on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
News Directory 3: Dr.Voronova, thank you for joining us. recently, there has been considerable attention on the “Oreshnik” missile and its supposed capabilities. Can you provide us with a brief overview of the ISW’s position on this missile?
Dr. Elena Voronova: Certainly. Our analysis suggests that the “Oreshnik” missile does not introduce any new capabilities into the conflict. It is part of a broader system that Russia has deployed, and its operational impact is limited. The emphasis that President Putin places on the missile’s technical features appears to be a strategic maneuver aimed at information warfare rather than a reflection of any meaningful new threat.
News Directory 3: You mentioned that this could be part of an information campaign. How does that work, and what are its intended effects?
Dr. Voronova: The focus on the missile’s range and payload is designed to intimidate both Ukraine and its allies. By comparing its destructive power to that of a meteor, the Russian leadership aims to create a psychological foray into the minds of Ukrainian decision-makers. This type of rhetoric can serve to distract Kyiv from effectively utilizing Western military support, pushing them into a defensive posture rather than an offensive one.
News Directory 3: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has dismissed these threats as lacking substance. What is yoru assessment of this response?
dr. Voronova: President Zelensky’s response is grounded in reality. Russia is already utilizing drones and missiles against civilian and critical infrastructure in Ukraine, demonstrating that their capabilities are significant. However, threats about targeting ”decision-making centers” in Kyiv do not present a new danger, but rather reiterate an ongoing tactic of warfare that has seen civilian areas targeted extensively.
News Directory 3: There are reports from U.S. intelligence suggesting that the use of the “Oreshnik” missile has not changed the assessments regarding nuclear threats. how reliable do you find these assessments?
Dr. Voronova: The U.S. intelligence community’s position remains consistent with our findings. There is a broad consensus that the Kremlin is unlikely to resort to nuclear weapons in Ukraine,even in the wake of Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory. This suggests that while the threats are intended to maintain a level of intimidation, the actual likelihood of a nuclear escalation remains low.
News Directory 3: what do you beleive should be the response of Ukraine and its allies in light of these developments regarding the “Oreshnik” missile?
Dr. Voronova: Ukraine and its allies should continue to focus on strengthening their military capabilities without being swayed by psychological operations. Support from Western nations should be ramped up, providing Ukraine with the tools it needs to defend itself effectively, particularly as Russia’s strategic messaging aims to create fear and uncertainty. Coordinated efforts in military assistance and intelligence sharing are critical to maintaining a robust defense posture.
News Directory 3: Thank you, Dr. voronova, for your insights on this important issue.
Dr. Voronova: Thank you for having me. It’s crucial to stay informed and focused as these developments unfold.
On November 27, Reuters cited sources close to U.S. intelligence, indicating that the attack with the “Oreshnik” missile on Dnipro on November 21 did not alter the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment. This assessment holds that it is unlikely the Kremlin will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, even in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with Western arms.
Radoslav Velkov