Pound Shows Volatility​ in Asia and Europe Amidst Election Polls and‍ Economic Data

The pound experienced a rising ‍and falling trend in Asia and Europe today (Wednesday, September ⁤25), consolidating its gains since 1.3249 (Monday’s low) and breaking through 1.3400 to⁤ hit ⁤a 30-month high in Asia. The pound reached 1.3429, just 7 points short⁣ of the March 2022 peak.

The ⁢S&P 500⁤ closed⁢ at a record high on Tuesday, which is positive for the risk-sensitive pound. The latest polls show Harris ⁤winning the election, considered negative for the dollar and supportive of the pound.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday showed that Harris⁤ leads Trump​ in the upcoming election on November 5 with a support rate of 47% to 40%. The ⁢latest poll conducted⁢ a nationwide online survey ⁣of 1,029 American‍ adults, including 871 registered voters.

Bank of‌ England MPC member Green gave a speech on consumption issues, stating that British consumption is still weak and inflation persistence indicators are generally moving in the right direction. Wage growth has fallen but remains above what our models⁤ would reflect. Green emphasized the importance ⁣of ⁢watching incoming data for evidence that risks of‍ persistent inflationary pressures are waning.

Green also mentioned that a cautious and prudent‍ monetary policy easing approach is‌ appropriate, as risks⁢ to economic‍ activity‌ are skewed​ to the upside, which could mean higher long-term neutral interest rates.

After Green’s speech, the pound fell more than ten ‍points against the US dollar in the short term to the current ⁣daily low of 1.3375.

The⁢ next Bank of England interest rate decision will be released on November 7. Previous UK CPI and important economic data will guide the market’s expectations on whether⁣ the Bank of England will continue to cut interest rates.

From a technical point of view, the pound is overbought, with the relative strength​ index exceeding 70, and⁤ a correction on the daily chart. The 15-minute 200⁢ moving average⁣ is at 1.3365, and the support of 1.3350-1.3346 is an area ‍where bulls and shorts have continued to compete in recent days.

1.3429 is not only an intraday high but ‍also a new high in 2024. Some investors sold the pound on the pullback to 1.3400. ‍The momentum​ indicator remains positive. If it closes⁤ below 1.3331 ‌(low ‍on September 24), it may trigger greater pressure.

At 17:00 Beijing time, the pound was trading at‍ 1.3378/79 against the US dollar,⁣ down 0.26%.