Premier League Midweek Preview: Jones Knows’ Insights and Best Bets
The Premier League schedule continues at a relentless pace with a full midweek card of fixtures. Our football betting expert, Jones Knows, provides his detailed analysis and best bets, focusing on key matchups and emerging trends. From potential fouls to goal-scoring opportunities, here’s a breakdown of what to expect.
Chelsea vs Leeds, Tuesday 7:30pm
Jones Knows highlights a profitable betting angle centered around centre-forwards committing fouls on centre-backs. He observes that the current Premier League season is characterized by direct play and a greater emphasis on winning first contact, leading to increased physicality and, more fouls committed by strikers. This trend creates opportunities to identify value in the “to be fouled” market.
Specifically, Jones Knows points to Chelsea’s upcoming match against Leeds, focusing on Leeds striker Joao Pedro. Pedro has demonstrated a willingness to engage in physical battles and has committed eight fouls in six starts under manager Liam Rosenior. This makes Joe Rodon, a “bulky” centre-back, a strong candidate to be fouled +2 times, currently priced at 4/1 with Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 2-1
Everton vs Bournemouth, Tuesday 7:30pm
Everton midfielder James Garner emerges as a compelling bet to commit +2 fouls at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Garner has reached this mark in 10 of his 20 central midfield starts this season, showcasing his propensity for making key challenges. This prediction is further supported by Bournemouth’s Alex Scott, who has drawn 14 fouls in his last eight appearances. The anticipated battle between Garner and Scott in midfield suggests Garner will be actively involved in disrupting Scott’s rhythm, leading to multiple fouls.
Score Prediction: 2-1 | Jones Knows’ Best Bet: James Garner +2 fouls committed (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Tottenham vs Newcastle, Tuesday 7:30pm
Tottenham’s recent struggles are becoming increasingly concerning, with only two wins in their last 16 Premier League games. Sky Bet now prices Spurs at 10/1 to be relegated, reflecting the growing anxiety surrounding their form. Jones Knows emphasizes the severity of the situation, noting that a failure to improve quickly could see them embroiled in a genuine relegation battle, especially if West Ham continues to perform well.
Given Tottenham’s poor home record – just one win in their last 11 Premier League matches at home – and Eddie Howe’s ability to deliver results for Newcastle in challenging circumstances, Jones Knows recommends backing Newcastle to win both halves at 5/2 with Sky Bet. He anticipates a fast start from Newcastle, capitalizing on the potential unrest among the Tottenham fanbase.
Score Prediction: 1-2
West Ham vs Manchester United, Tuesday 8:15pm
Crysensio Summerville of West Ham presents a standout betting opportunity, with Jones Knows recommending a bet on him to have a shot on target at Evens with Sky Bet. Summerville has been in excellent form, registering nine shots on target in his last six matches. Nuno Espirito Santo’s tactical system appears to be unlocking Summerville’s potential, allowing him to create dangerous opportunities. Against a Manchester United side that has shown vulnerabilities defensively, Summerville is expected to be a constant threat.
Score Prediction: 2-2 | Jones Knows’ Best Bet: Crysensio Summerville +1 shots on target (Evens with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Brighton, Wednesday 7:30pm
Brighton’s recent form is a significant concern, with only one win in their last 12 games. Despite this, the market continues to price them as a dangerous opponent. Jones Knows believes this presents a valuable betting opportunity, recommending a bet on Aston Villa to win at 10/11 with Sky Bet. Villa’s ruthlessness and efficiency at home, combined with Brighton’s current struggles for creativity and confidence, make them a strong favorite in this matchup. The pressure is mounting on Brighton manager Fabian Hurzeler.
Score Prediction: 2-0
Crystal Palace vs Burnley, Wednesday 7:30pm
Jorgen Strand Larsen, Crystal Palace’s new striker, is identified as a high-value bet to be carded at 19/2 with Sky Bet. Strand Larsen has quickly established himself as a combative and physical presence, averaging 1.9 fouls per game in the Premier League. His willingness to engage in challenges and his tendency to overstep the mark make him a likely candidate for a yellow card. Jones Knows believes the odds are excessively generous given Larsen’s playing style.
Score Prediction: 2-0 | Jones Knows’ Best Bet: Jorgen Strand Larsen to be carded (19/2 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Fulham, Wednesday 7:30pm
Jones Knows notes that Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City are currently less predictable than in previous seasons, creating opportunities for opponents. Fulham, meanwhile, have consistently demonstrated an ability to score against City, with both teams scoring in 12 of their last 15 games and in their last four visits to the Etihad Stadium. This suggests Fulham is capable of exploiting City’s vulnerabilities and contributing to a high-scoring affair. Jones Knows recommends backing “both teams to score” at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 2-1
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves, Wednesday 7:30pm
The matchup between Morgan Gibbs-White and Wolves carries significant emotional weight, given Gibbs-White’s history with the club. Jones Knows believes this personal connection will translate into a fiery performance from Gibbs-White, making him a strong candidate to both score and receive a card. He recommends a combined bet on Gibbs-White to score and be carded at 10/1 with Sky Bet, anticipating a passionate and potentially reckless performance from the midfielder.
Score Prediction: 2-1
Sunderland vs Liverpool, Wednesday 8:15pm
Jones Knows emphasizes the importance of understanding match-ups in the “to be fouled” market. He highlights the upcoming duel between Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk and Sunderland’s Brian Bobbey. Bobbey is described as a physical and confrontational striker who averages 1.8 fouls per 90 minutes. Jones Knows believes Van Dijk, despite his composure, will be drawn into challenges by Bobbey, making him a good bet to win +1 fouls.
Score Prediction: 1-1
Brentford vs Arsenal, Thursday 8:15pm
Arsenal’s prolific goal-scoring form makes the “over 2.5 goals” bet an attractive option in their match against Brentford. Arsenal has averaged 3.4 goals per game in their last 13 matches, with 10 of those games exceeding 2.5 goals. Jones Knows recommends backing “over 2.5 goals” at Evens with Sky Bet, confident that Arsenal’s attacking prowess will be too much for Brentford to contain.
Score Prediction: 1-3 | Jones Knows’ Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ best bets:
- 1pt on: Jorgen Strand Larsen to be carded (19/2 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt treble on: James Garner +2 fouls committed, Crysensio Summerville to have +1 shots on target & Over 2.5 goals in Brentford v Arsenal (14/1 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss record 25/26
| Best Bet singles (1 unit) | Best Bet multiples | Total P+L | |
| Matchday One | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Matchday Two | 0 | -1 | -2 |
| Matchday Three | 0 | -1 | -3 |
| Matchday Four | 0 | -1 | -4 |
| Matchday Five | +2.75 | -1 | -2.75 |
| Matchday Six | -1 | -1 | -4.75 |
| Matchday Seven | -1 | 0 | -5.75 |
| Matchday Eight | -3 | 0 | -8.75 |
| Matchday Nine | 0 | -1 | -9.75 |
| Matchday Ten | -1 | -1 | -11.75 |
| Matchday Eleven | -1 | 0 | -12.75 |
| Matchday Twelve | -1 | -1 | -14.75 |
| Matchday Thirteen | -2 | 0 | -16.75 |
| Matchday Fourteen | -1 | -2 | -19.75 |
| Matchday Fifteen | 0 | -1 | -20.75 |
| Matchday Sixteen | 0 | -1 | -21.75 |
| Matchday Seventeen | 0 | -1 | -22.75 |
| Matchday Eighteen | 0 | -1 | -23.75 |
| Matchday Nineteen | 0 | -1 | -24.75 |
| Matchday Twenty | -1 | 0 | -25.75 |
| Matchday Twenty-One | -4 | 0 | -29.75 |
| Matchday Twenty-Two | 0 | -1 | -30.75 |
| Matchday Twenty-Three | 0 | -1 | -31.75 |
| Matchday Twenty-Four | -1 | -1 | -33.75 |
