Punjab Cotton Output Dispute – Business News
Cotton Data Discrepancy Threatens Pakistan’s Industry and Global Credibility
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Islamabad: A important and persistent discrepancy between teh production figures reported by the Cotton Research and Growth Board (CRDB) Punjab and the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) is casting a long shadow over Pakistan’s vital cotton industry, raising serious concerns about strategic planning, market confidence, and the nation’s standing in international cotton forums.
Conflicting Figures Spark Industry Alarm
The crux of the issue lies in the vastly different estimates of cotton production. while the PCGA bases its figures on actual cotton and lint sales and stock data collected fortnightly from every ginning factory across the country, the CRDB Punjab employs a field-based methodology. This involves measuring boll size and weight, counting bolls per plant, and monitoring picking activity in sample plots as small as eight feet by six feet, or across an entire acre.
Ihsan-ul-Haq, Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, highlighted the detrimental impact of this data divergence. “this variance has long complicated decision-making for stakeholders in the cotton industry,” Haq stated. He pointed out that while some attribute the CRDB’s inflated figures to unrecorded lint sales by certain ginners, the existence of two conflicting national datasets has severely damaged Pakistan’s credibility in international cotton forums.
“as of July 15, the PCGA reported Punjab’s cotton production at 145,000 bales, while CRDB Punjab claimed 335,000 bales – a staggering difference,” haq revealed, emphasizing that such figures appear “divorced from ground realities.” He further stressed the inadequacy of determining provincial output from a “handful of bolls or a couple of micro-plots.”
calls for Data Harmonization and Clarity
The Cotton Ginners Forum has urged the CRDB to adopt a more grounded data collection approach, mirroring the PCGA’s method. Haq proposed that CRDB staff collect real-time data directly from ginneries and grain markets to ensure greater accuracy and credibility. this would involve a shift from the current field-sampling technique to a more direct reporting system from the points of sale and processing.
CRDB Defends Methodology Amidst Criticism
In defense of the Center’s approach, CRDB Punjab Director-General Dr. Abdul Qayyum explained that approximately 1,600 staff members are deployed weekly in cotton-growing areas to gather data from around 4,000 locations. “Our teams measure boll size and weight, count bolls per plant, and monitor picking activity in the field,” Dr. Qayyum told Dawn.
He asserted that the CRDB’s calculations are based on standardized field practices, with no inherent incentive to inflate or deflate figures. Dr. Qayyum attributed the divergence from PCGA data to basic differences in the collection points. “While we report from the picking stage, PCGA collects data at the ginning stage – where under-invoicing by ginners to evade sales tax is a known issue, as acknowledged by the industry itself,” he stated.
Impact on Policy and Market Confidence
Despite these explanations, the widening chasm between CRDB and PCGA data continues to be a significant concern for cotton stakeholders. Industry experts warn that unreliable production figures could severely undermine effective policymaking, distort market signals, and erode confidence among both domestic and international buyers. The lack of a unified and trusted data set poses a substantial risk to the future growth and stability of Pakistan’s cotton sector.
Published in Dawn,July 27th,2025