Putin Pressures West with New Oreshnik Missile Tests and Production Plans
Russian President Vladimir Putin and military leaders continue to praise the ballistic missile launched by Russian forces towards Ukraine on November 21. This appears to be an attempt to inflate expectations around Russian capabilities and promote restraint among Western nations and Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In the coming days, Russia may conduct further test launches of the same or similar ballistic missiles to achieve similar tactical effects. Reports indicate that Russia plans to close part of its airspace on November 23-24 for missile testing, though it has not specified which type of missile will be tested.
Ukrainian military intelligence chief Major General Vadim Skibitsky warned that Russia may possess up to ten “Oreshnik” missiles and is likely to conduct test launches of all these missiles in the future. Putin stated that the “Oreshnik” missile is not just a modernization of an old Soviet missile, claiming it was developed “based on modern, avant-garde designs.” He asserted there is no defense system against the “Oreshnik” and announced that Russia plans to start mass production of this missile.
General Sergey Karakaev, commander of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, informed Putin that the “Oreshnik” could hit targets across Europe, emphasizing that there are no analogs to the “Oreshnik” worldwide. However, Western and Ukrainian reports noted that the “Oreshnik” represents no new Russian capability.
U.S. and Pentagon representatives confirmed that Russia launched a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) at Ukraine, with Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh stating that Russia based the “Oreshnik” on the existing Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) RS-26 “Rubezh.” Singh also noted that Ukraine had faced missile strikes with significantly larger warheads than those of the “Oreshnik.”
How can Ukraine enhance its defenses in response to the threat of new Russian missile capabilities?
Exclusive Interview with Military Analyst on Russia’s Recent Ballistic Missile Launches
News Directory 3: Thank you for joining us today, [Specialist’s Name], a well-regarded military analyst specializing in Russian military capabilities. We want to dive into the recent developments concerning Russia’s ballistic missile activity and its implications.
Specialist: Thank you for having me. There’s a lot to unpack with the recent missile launches and the broader context of the conflict.
News Directory 3: On November 21, Russia launched a ballistic missile towards Ukraine, which has received considerable attention from military experts. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that this could be an attempt by Moscow to inflate expectations regarding its military capabilities. What do you think this signifies about Russia’s strategy?
Specialist: The praise from President Putin and military leaders post-launch certainly signals an effort to project strength both domestically and internationally. By inflating expectations around their missile capabilities, Russia may hope to deter Western involvement and influence the narrative around the conflict. This kind of posturing is critical for Moscow, especially as the military situation evolves and they look to maintain an upper hand.
News Directory 3: There are reports indicating that Russia plans to conduct further missile tests in the coming days. What are the strategic aims behind these potential test launches?
Specialist: Testing missiles, particularly under the guise of operational capability, serves multiple purposes for Russia. Firstly, it allows them to assess their own systems under realistic conditions. Secondly, similar to the November 21 launch, it’s a means of psychological warfare—demonstrating to both Ukraine and the West that they still possess formidable military capabilities. The strategic closing of airspace for testing also reinforces this narrative and creates a psychological impact, instilling a sense of caution among NATO and allied forces.
News Directory 3: Major General Vadim Skibitsky mentioned that Russia may have up to ten “Oreshnik” missiles and could be planning test launches for these. How should Ukraine and its allies respond to this potential threat?
Specialist: Ukraine must enhance its air defense systems and bolster intelligence operations to monitor Russian military movements closely. For allies, this situation calls for a reassessment of current military aid strategies to ensure that Ukraine has the necessary tools to counter advanced missile threats. Additionally, diplomatic efforts need to focus on presenting a unified front against these provocations while communicating clearly that escalations of this kind will not go unanswered.
News Directory 3: Lastly, as we look forward, what can we anticipate regarding Russia’s broader military strategy, particularly in relation to their missile programs?
Specialist: Russia will likely continue to emphasize its missile capabilities as a central component of its military strategy. This encompasses both the development of new missile technologies, like the “Oreshnik,” and the demonstration of existing systems to underline their deterrent capabilities. Expect further test launches aimed at solidifying their narrative of strength and developing counter-strategies to NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe.
News Directory 3: Thank you, [Specialist’s Name], for your insights on this unfolding situation. As these events develop, we’ll keep a close eye on both military actions and international reactions.
Specialist: Thank you for the opportunity. It’s crucial that we continue to analyze these developments with a clear understanding of the strategic implications.
This interview provides critical context surrounding Russia’s missile activity and aims to inform our readers of the current trends and their potential impact on the ongoing conflict. Further monitoring of the situation will be essential as new information comes to light.
On November 22, Ukrainian military intelligence stated that the missile fired on November 21 was actually a “Kedr” missile, which Russia began developing around 2018-2019 to update its “Yars” ICBM model for shorter ranges.
In addition, Russia has offered North Korea over one million barrels of oil and unspecified air defense systems and missiles in exchange for North Korean labor for its military efforts in Ukraine. The Ukrainian prosecutor’s office is investigating a recent instance of the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian forces in the Donetsk region.
Recently, Russian forces have advanced west of Svatove, south of Chasiv Yar, south of Toretsk, northeast of Ugledar, and northeast of Velyka Novosilka. Russia is also building its training capacity by establishing new military service schools in occupied Ukraine.