Putin’s Serial Killer Logic: Baltic Provocations Explained
# Russia’s Provocative Game: Why Western Responses Must Evolve
T. Jermalavičius, a seasoned security expert, believes Russia is playing a dangerous game, aiming to intimidate and discredit its smaller neighbors. He warns that if the West’s response remains unchanged, the Kremlin will soon dictate the rules of engagement.
## From Contempt to Provocation: Understanding Russia’s Tactics
Russia’s actions at sea and in the air are a clear reflection of its long-standing stance: a deep-seated contempt for the sovereignty of smaller nations. This isn’t a new phenomenon; such incidents have occurred annually. Though, recently, these provocations have become more blatant and frequent.
“The country is essentially run by a KGB regime,” Jermalavičius states, “and these strategies were honed during the Cold War.” He emphasizes that diplomatic notes are no longer sufficient. Instead, a response of “real action” is required.### The Turkish Example: A model for Effective Deterrence
As a prime example of effective deterrence,Jermalavičius points to the 2015 incident where the Turkish Air Force shot down a Russian fighter jet after repeated warnings for violating Turkish airspace.Crucially, as this decisive action, similar incursions have not recurred. This demonstrates that a firm,tangible response can indeed alter aggressive behavior.
### Shifting the Paradigm: From Passive Defense to Structural Change
Jermalavičius stresses the urgent need to move beyond outdated doctrines that assume a peaceful environment. “It’s time to leave behind thinking and doctrines that can only exist in peace,” he urges. The focus must shift towards seeking structural changes that empower nations to defend themselves more effectively. This means re-evaluating current defense strategies and investing in capabilities that can deter aggression, rather than merely reacting to it.The goal is to create a security architecture that discourages provocative actions before they occur, ensuring that the rules of the game are not unilaterally rewritten by those who seek to destabilize.