Rashid CP Predicts UDF Wave and 102-Seat Victory in Kerala

The 2026 Kerala Assembly elections have seen a significant surge in voter participation, with initial data indicating the highest polling percentages since 1987. As the state awaits final figures from the Election Commission, multiple surveys and psephological forecasts suggest a strong shift in political momentum toward the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

Data recorded through 9:00 PM on April 9, 2026, shows a total state polling percentage of 78.23 percent. Two districts, Kozhikode and Palakkad, surpassed the 80 percent mark, with Kozhikode leading at 81.23 percent.

Seat Projections and Forecasts

Various analysts and polling agencies have released projections indicating a potential decisive victory for the UDF. Psephologist Rashid CP has forecasted a UDF wave in the state, projecting the alliance could secure between 91 and 102 seats. Rashid CP attributes this shift to the fact that minority voters have completely moved away from the Left Democratic Front (LDF).

Other projections align with a UDF majority, though the estimated seat counts vary by source:

• A Lok Poll “Mega Pre-Poll Survey” conducted between February 9 and February 24, 2026, based on 42,000 respondents, projected the UDF winning 81 to 86 seats with a vote share of 43 to 45 percent.
• A subsequent Lok Poll update on April 4, 2026, adjusted the UDF projection to between 77 and 81 seats, with a vote share of 42 to 44 percent.
• Other reports indicate the UDF is projected to bag between 88 and 92 seats.

In contrast, the ruling LDF is projected to face significant losses. The April 4 Lok Poll survey estimates the LDF will secure between 58 and 62 seats with a vote share of 39 to 41 percent. An earlier February survey by the same organization had placed the LDF between 51 and 59 seats. Rashid CP’s forecast is more severe, predicting the LDF could drop to between 38 and 48 seats.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to remain a marginal force. Projections place the NDA at 0 to 2 seats according to the February Lok Poll, 1 to 2 seats in the April 4 update and up to 1 to 3 seats according to Rashid CP.

Drivers of Political Shift

Analysts point to several qualitative factors driving the projected shift in the political landscape. The LDF is reportedly battling mounting anti-incumbency after a decade in power. Specific issues cited include corruption, farmer concerns, and the impact of the Sabarimala gold scam and related irregularities, which have dented the credibility of the LDF government.

The UDF’s projected strength is attributed to alliance cohesion, reduced vote leakage, and community consolidation. Regional shifts have been observed across North, Central, and South Kerala, with minority consolidation playing a key role in the UDF’s projected lead.

Voter Turnout and Participation

The high level of voter engagement is a defining characteristic of the 2026 cycle. The recorded 78.23 percent polling across the state represents a historic level of participation, surpassing figures not seen in nearly four decades. The high turnout in districts like Kozhikode and Palakkad suggests a highly mobilized electorate as the state moves toward the final tally.