Recession Warning: Job Growth Limited to Few Industries – Zandi
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Recession Concerns: Economist Mark Zandi believes the US economy is on the verge of, or potentially already in, a recession. He points to the revised June jobs report (a loss of 13,000 jobs) as a significant indicator, as recessions are frequently enough dated back to the frist month of payroll declines.
Weakening labor Market: Long-term unemployment is rising, and a growing number of people (over 6 million) outside the workforce are actively seeking employment.
“Jobs Recession”: Zandi describes the current situation as a “jobs recession” – employment is flat or declining, despite continued growth in output and incomes. he warns the economy is vulnerable and a single negative event could trigger a full downturn.
Positive GDP Growth (For Now): Despite the concerns, the economy is still showing positive GDP growth. The second quarter expanded by 3.3%, and the Atlanta Fed estimates a 3% increase for the third quarter.
* Treasury Secretary’s Response: Treasury Secretary Scott bessent called for “good data” in response to the weak jobs report.
