Red Sea Crisis: Suez Canal Route Faces Delays & Capacity Concerns (February 1, 2026)

Red Sea Shipping Disruption: A Complex Path to Normalcy

The prospect of easing tensions in the Red Sea might suggest a swift return to normal for shipping through the Suez Canal. However, the reality is far more complex. Ship owners are weighing not only the still-fragile security situation but also the threat of falling freight rates, high insurance costs, and the potential for congestion at European infrastructure, which may struggle to handle a sudden influx of vessels.

Security concerns escalated in late 2023 when the Houthi group began attacking commercial and container ships in the Bab el-Mandeb strait and the Red Sea. The group, which controls most of northern Yemen, targeted vessels linked to Israel and countries supporting it, reportedly in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

In response, ship owners began rerouting the majority of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 15 days to voyages depending on their Asian destination. According to David Knobloch, managing director and co-owner of the freight forwarding company NTG Air &amp. Ocean, more than one hundred attacks on international ships in the Red Sea had been confirmed over the past two years, with the most recent occurring on the ship Minervagracht in September 2025.

The Suez Canal is a crucial component of international maritime routes. In 2023, roughly 52 ships transited the canal daily, representing up to 12% of global trade. Rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope has extended transit times to 34 to 55 days from major Chinese ports to North German ports, though, according to Knobloch, it has also increased the reliability of transport.

Recent reports indicate a potential easing of the situation, but concerns remain. Miloš Molnár of logistics company BPD Wakestone suggests that, from a logistical standpoint, You’ll see no immediate obstacles to resuming Red Sea routes. However, he cautions that a degree of caution is still warranted, given ongoing tensions between Israel and Hamas, and potential developments involving Iran.

Will Ships Return to the Shorter Route?

Even if ship owners deem the risk of transiting the Suez Canal acceptable, a swift return to the shorter route is unlikely. “Redirecting services is not a short-term matter for maritime transport. Ship routes, not only commercial flows but also the container logistics themselves, are planned in advance, and implementing such a change takes three to six months. Ship owners certainly don’t want to make hasty decisions based on first impressions and a momentary lull,” according to industry sources.

Currently, the impact of sailing around Africa is limited, as recipients are already factoring in longer delivery times. More significant disruptions to supply chains are stemming from events in Europe, such as strikes, adverse weather, and ongoing repairs to rail corridors crucial for transporting goods to the Czech Republic.

Knobloch confirms the cautious approach, stating that current traffic through the Suez Canal is around 40% of 2023 levels, with container ship traffic down by more than 90%. While some carriers, such as CMA-CGM and the Gemini Alliance (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd), had initially planned a return, CMA-CGM reportedly reversed its decision following renewed threats from the Houthi group.

Egypt’s attempts to incentivize a return to the canal through reduced transit fees and lower war risk insurance surcharges have not been fully effective. The insurance surcharge remains between one and two percent of the vessel’s total value, compared to 0.05% to 0.1% in 2023, adding hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars to the cost of a single voyage.

The loss of revenue from the Suez Canal is having a negative impact on the Egyptian economy. The cost of a single Ultra Large Container Vessel transit is estimated at up to one million dollars, representing a potential loss of six to seven billion dollars annually.

“Even with the incentives and discounts offered by Egypt, we will likely see a gradual return to avoid all the aforementioned risks – namely, falling prices, congestion in ports, and disruption to services that are striving for long-term stability,” Molnár stated.

The Problem Isn’t Just Security

According to Molnár, ship owners are also concerned about the potential for overcapacity if ships return to the Suez Canal route. The longer voyages around Africa reduced overall shipping capacity by roughly 9 to 10 percent, leading to increased freight rates. However, a significant number of new ships entered service in 2024 and 2025, bringing prices back down to levels that are unfavorable for ship owners. A sudden return to the Suez Canal could flood the market with capacity, causing a drastic fall in rates and potentially forcing carriers to idle vessels.

A mass return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal could also overwhelm European ports. The combination of delayed and unreliable ship services, strikes, and major repairs to European, particularly German, rail infrastructure is already causing significant disruption to container transport between ports and inland destinations.

“If all the ships were to return through Suez at once, they would meet with the ships still circumnavigating Africa, and more ships than usual would be trying to unload their cargo on European shores simultaneously. It must be done gradually,” Molnár explained.

Adverse weather conditions this winter, which caused several days of port closures, have not helped to stabilize the situation. Containers have been stuck on ships waiting for permission to enter ports, on terminals due to port congestion, and on rail networks experiencing disruptions. Redirecting all ships back through the Suez Canal would, according to Molnár, result in a “total collapse of European port and rail infrastructure.”