Rethinking Political Change in Iran: From Protest to War

Sociologist Mohammad Ali Kadivar argues that domestic protest movements in Iran have fundamentally reshaped social norms and political calculations, contrary to claims by the Trump administration that only outside intervention can bring democracy. The analysis comes as the U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran enters its fourth month, according to the Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP).

The conflict has shifted from its initial high-intensity waves into a war of attrition, MERIP reports. This phase is currently defined by two primary fronts: a struggle over the status of the Strait of Hormuz and an expanded Israeli campaign to occupy southern Lebanon. MERIP states that the instability in the Strait of Hormuz has produced far-reaching effects on the global economy.

How do domestic protests impact Iranian political change?

In a new article titled “Rethinking Political Change in Iran from Protest to War,” Mohammad Ali Kadivar, a sociologist and former MERIP editor, challenges the narrative that internal opposition to the Iranian regime has failed. This narrative is a central argument used by the Trump administration and supported by some Iranian diaspora groups to justify outside intervention.

Kadivar describes the belief that only foreign intervention can establish a stronger democracy as “short-term thinking.” He argues that successive waves of protest by various groups within Iran have achieved long-term structural changes.

According to Kadivar, these mobilizations have:

• Reshaped social norms within the country.
• Altered the political calculations of those in power.
• Expanded the terrain for future political struggles.

While the current war may change the trajectory of these popular politics, Kadivar asserts that a post-war reckoning is inevitable. This reckoning will address both the repressive tactics of the Iranian regime and the “imperialist assault” on the country, according to the analysis.

What is the role of gender in the Iranian revolutionary context?

MERIP is launching a summer 2026 event series titled “Iran in Context” to provide deeper background on the current war. The series is a collaboration with the Italian Association of Middle East Studies (SeSaMO) and the British Society for Middle East Studies (BRISMES).

The first session, “Gender and Revolution,” is scheduled for June 18, 2026, at 10 a.m. EST. The event features Nazanin Shahrokni of Simon Fraser University and Manijeh Moradian of Barnard College.

The discussion will analyze the role of women in Iranian politics from the 1979 revolution to the present. According to the event description, the scholars will examine the long-term consequences of women’s political mobilization across several specific historical periods:

• The 1970s.
• The Iran-Iraq war.
• The reform period.
• Recent protest movements.

The conversation will be moderated by MERIP executive director James Ryan, SeSaMO secretary Paola Rivetti, and Sabiha Allouche, a BRISMES board member and MERIP editorial committee member.

How is MERIP funding its research and reporting?

MERIP operates without paywalls and relies on individual donations to maintain its operations. James Ryan, the organization’s executive director, announced that a recent “Delco Gives” fundraiser raised more than $17,000.

The funds were contributed by more than 120 individual donors. Ryan stated that the organization also expects several thousand dollars in additional bonus funds from the Foundation for Delaware County.