Revolutionizing the Future: The Power of Innovation

InnovateX Securities Company Limited Reveal the general picture of the Thai stock market in 2024, estimating that the SET Index target will be 1,500 points by the end of the 4th quarter of 2024, benefiting from the economic trend that is expected to recover in the 4th quarter of 2024 as a result of Phase 1 measures the Digital Wallet to help stimulate consumption within the country The Thai stock market is expected to improve more than the previous period.

Focus on investing in passive stocks with growing returns. There are 4 characteristics of stocks that will help generate better than market returns in the 4th quarter of 2024. Look for stocks with good financial status (balance sheet), which will help protect against the impact of highly uncertain conditions and broad macro challenges and positive momentum from the continued recovery of the smartphone, notebook, and automotive segments.

In addition, operating results in the 4th quarter of 2024 recovered from income recovery and an increase in profit. and benefit from the government’s economic stimulus measures and long-term supportive policies. This is because the world economy has started to show signs of slowing down in the beginning. Therefore, we still select stocks with strong financial status and clear signs of profit recovery in the 3rd quarter of 2024.

For the second half of 2024, look for companies that can grow faster than the market average and maintain earnings momentum. They like companies whose profits continue to recover and benefit from an improving domestic economic outlook and short-term economic stimulus measures. Therefore, BDMS, CPALL, GPSC, HANA and LHHOTEL were selected as outstanding stocks in 4Q2024 when evaluating the SET Index for 2025 at 1,550 points.

Looking further into the 4th quarter of 2024, there are 3 risks: a weakening dollar and the US election. and relations between the United States and China This may cause the world stock market and the Thai stock market to become more volatile

Geopolitics between China and the United States There are still different central banks. Interest rates may be cut unevenly in the 4th quarter of 2024, which will cause the currency to fluctuate.

In addition, the outlook for global economic growth weakens in the 3rd-4th quarter of 2024, which may lower expectations for growth in 2025.

Udomsirikul Sukit Mr Managing Director, Research Division BL.InnovateX He said: “The important factors to monitor in the 4th quarter of 2024 include 1) the direction of the US economy. that it will continue to expand and not experience a recession As the market predicts or not 2) The results of the US presidential election. This will have a lasting impact on the economy and politics of the world. This is because the policies of the two parties are different, 3) the direction of the technology business, whether it can sustain continuous growth or not, and 4) policies to stimulate the Thai economy in other areas.

In this regard, there is an opinion that the recovery of the Thai stock market during August – September is due to “The crisis of confidence has resolved,” causing stock prices to return to reflect fundamental factors.

Sutichai Khumworachai Mr Head of the Investment Strategy Department Investment Strategy Department BLInnovative. X Limited It was revealed: “The world economy continues to expand well. Even in the next period, major countries will begin to slow down in a soft landing mode, lowering interest rates from the US Federal Reserve. It will be a starting point for other central banks. Start reducing interest rates accordingly. Helps promote the attractiveness of stock markets in emerging markets (EM), including Thailand.

The rate of inflation is still slowing. Looking ahead, energy price inflation is likely to continue to fall. of the oil market which is beginning to move into a state of oversupply due to slowing demand. and a supply that continues to increase

It is recommended to follow the US economic and employment numbers. After the reduction in the interest rate China’s economy may not reach the official target of 5% for the US elections which will affect the world economy and international politics In Thailand, follow the new government measures. Including the performance of listed companies which will determine the movement of the SET Index in the next period.

side Piyasak Manasan Dr Chief Economic Researcher Investment Strategy Department Innovative Exchange Co., Ltd. Said that in the 4th quarter of 2024, the economy, interest rates, and world politics will enter a new era. The main economy will slow down. Especially the manufacturing sector Interest rates will enter a downward cycle. After the Fed cuts interest rates aggressively Meanwhile, world politics will change and fluctuate. Especially in the United States the presidential candidates on both sides have different economic policies

Regarding the direction of the world economy, the European economy will expand 0.8% this year, less than the expansion of the United States of 2.3%. down due to political factors and tight fiscal and monetary policies

However, the government was able to successfully push the Digital Wallet policy, giving the Thai economy a chance to recover in the 4th quarter, which is expected to expand by 3.5%, while for the whole year 2024, the Thai economy is expected to expand 2.5% (MPC) has the opportunity to reduce interest rates by 1.0% in 2024 and 2025 to support growth. In addition, reducing interest rates will help reduce the appreciation of the baht as well. “

while Sittichai Duangrattanachaya Senior strategist for Thai and international stock markets Investment Strategy Department Innovative Exchange Co., Ltd. Revealing “Investment strategy for the 4th quarter of 2024, the market is expected to have high volatility due to external pressure factors. Especially the US elections. The polls are still fairly close. While the policies of the two candidates are very different.

However, the Fed’s interest rate cut will benefit emerging markets (EM), where their economies continue to grow well compared to developed markets (DM). in terms of domestic factors, there are still supporting factors from the announcement of policies to increase economic stimulus and the new government’s confidence, causing the SET Index to be able to adjust upwards amid volatility.

Meanwhile, foreign stocks after the Fed cut interest rates Help to reduce the impact of the economy and employment that is starting to slow down in an environment where the economy is not facing a recession yet. Investing in risky assets is still attractive.

The group of stocks that benefit from the decline in interest rates namely

Home repair and decoration group (HD, LOW)

Clean Energy Group (FSLR, ENPH)

Stocks available Valuation is not expensive and dividends are high. (VZ, PFE, F, TGT)

Technology stocks whose performance still tends to be good (MSFT, AMD, CRM, PANW, NVDA)

In addition to the US market, we believe that investing must focus on picking stocks with good fundamentals rather than the issue of stock valuation accuracy. In the European market, we are looking at stocks focused on clean energy and generating a feeling of declining interest, such as Iberdrola and Enel.

Wisakorn Keereewan MrCFA, Director of Investment Strategist, Wealth and Strategy Products Innovative Exchange Co., Ltd. In conclusion, he said The investment situation at the end of the third quarter was full of instability and is expected to continue to increase. In the last quarter of the year until three important events ended: 1. The impact of the first Fed rate cut 2. The results of the US presidential election 3. Downgrading of growth expectations in major stocks.