Risk Management Analyst Says Strait of Hormuz Closure May Persist Amid Ceasefire as War Avoided by All Sides

Amid a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, a risk management analyst has warned that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses significant economic risks, even as both sides appear reluctant to resume hostilities.

Paymon Azmoudeh, a senior consultant with the risk and compliance practice at Forward Global, told FRANCE 24 that the calculation on all sides is that returning to war is not in anyone’s interest. He emphasized that while the ceasefire is largely holding, the economic impasse over the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately one-fifth of global oil output passes, has been effectively closed since the outbreak of military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel in late February 2026. This closure has disrupted oil flows from the Persian Gulf, prompting producers such as Iraq and Kuwait to curtail production as storage capacities filled.

According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, a complete cessation of oil exports from the Gulf region would remove nearly 20 percent of global oil supplies from the market, with about 80 percent of that volume destined for Asian markets. The closure has already contributed to upward pressure on oil prices, which neared $100 a barrel in mid-April 2026 amid uncertainty over diplomatic efforts.

Azmoudeh’s assessment aligns with broader concerns expressed by energy analysts, who have warned that a prolonged disruption could push oil prices into triple digits and trigger a supply shock with global economic repercussions. The duration of any closure, they note, will determine the severity of the impact.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the stalemate have faced setbacks. Iran’s foreign minister has denounced the U.S. Blockade of Iranian ports as an “act of war,” while plans for U.S. Vice President JD Vance to travel to Pakistan for renewed talks were put on hold after Iran failed to respond to American negotiating positions. The two-week truce, which began in late February, was set to expire on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, with neither side committing to next steps.

Despite the tensions, both Washington and Tehran have indicated a preference for avoiding further escalation. President Donald Trump told CNBC he remains optimistic about diplomacy but acknowledged that the U.S. Military is prepared to resume strikes if no agreement is reached. Key sticking points in the negotiations include Iran’s nuclear program and the future status of the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping traffic has been significantly curtailed.

As of April 22, 2026, the situation remains deadlocked: the ceasefire holds in name, but the economic blockade continues, leaving global markets vulnerable to further disruption should diplomatic efforts fail to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait.