Rosneft faces lasting war damage from drone strikes
- State-run oil giant Rosneft PJSC faces mounting financial deterioration and private warnings from its officials that a few more months of the war in Ukraine could inflict lasting...
- Rosneft operates 12 refineries that account for approximately one-third of Russia's total refining capacity.
- The Ryazan Oil Refinery—one of Rosneft's largest facilities—was forced to suspend operations at one of its main crude distillation units following a drone attack.
State-run oil giant Rosneft PJSC faces mounting financial deterioration and private warnings from its officials that a few more months of the war in Ukraine could inflict lasting damage on its business, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 22, citing insider sources, expert analysts, and company documents. Despite earlier expectations that conflict in the Middle East would bolster earnings, Rosneft’s first-half net income in 2026 fell by almost 20% to 200 billion rubles, equivalent to $2.4 billion, according to Bloomberg’s reporting.
Expanding drone strikes damage critical refining capacity
Rosneft operates 12 refineries that account for approximately one-third of Russia’s total refining capacity. Document reviews and analyses from Bloomberg show that Ukraine carried out at least 114 attacks on Russian oil refineries from January through October 2026, more than doubling the pace recorded over the same period in 2025. In September 2026 alone, five of 15 confirmed drone strikes on Russian refineries targeted Rosneft facilities that supply fuel to European Russia, the country’s highest-consumption region, according to Bloomberg.
The Ryazan Oil Refinery—one of Rosneft’s largest facilities—was forced to suspend operations at one of its main crude distillation units following a drone attack. Documents reviewed by Bloomberg indicate the Ryazan plant has remained shut down for more than half the time since an attack blitz in May 2026. When operational, the plant has run far below its actual capacity.
Escalating repair costs and delayed maintenance
Damage is especially difficult to repair when strikes hit secondary-processing units such as catalytic cracking, reforming, and hydrocracking units, parts for which were previously supplied by the West. While Rosneft managed to restart some refineries within weeks of an attack, those plants were struck again once repairs were complete or nearly complete. According to company plans reviewed by Bloomberg, attempts to protect facilities with shipping containers, nets, and steel cables proved ineffective against drones.
The constant need for repairs has driven operational costs to unsustainable levels, sources told Bloomberg. Consequently, some plants have deliberately slowed repair work, stretching maintenance that normally takes a few days into weeks. The Syzran refinery has spent most of the past six months either shut down completely or operating at less than a third of its capacity, while the Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea coast has stayed shut down since April.
Debt ratios rise amid shifting regional energy policies
Rosneft’s financial strain is further reflected in its debt metrics. The company’s ratio of net debt to earnings rose by 1.8 times in the first half of the year, reaching its highest level in over five years. These losses contrast with high-profile state initiatives, such as the September launch of the nearly $50 billion Vostok Oil project on Russia’s Arctic coast, which Igor Sechin advanced as Vladimir Putin watched by video link from the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency stated that drone strikes on Russian refineries are having a cumulative negative impact, expecting Russia to refine about 4 million barrels of oil per day over the next 18 months, approximately 30% less than before the full-scale war. While President Donald Trump recently announced a deal to buy Russian diesel, and Ukraine briefly halted refinery strikes in October to honor a proposed energy ceasefire, Kyiv resumed its attacks after Moscow did not observe the truce.