Russia Cannot Afford to Lose Syria
Syria under Al-Sharaa: rebalancing Relations with Russia After Assad’s Fall
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The recent visit by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to Moscow in October 2025 signals a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of Syria, marking a recalibration of the relationship between Damascus and its long-time ally, Russia. While Russia’s influence remains ample, the new Syrian leadership, backed by Türkiye, is actively seeking to redefine the partnership on more equitable terms, moving away from the patron-client dynamic that characterized the Assad regime. This article delves into the ancient context, current dynamics, and potential future trajectory of Syria-Russia relations under Al-Sharaa’s leadership.
Historical Context: From Soviet Ally to Assad’s Lifeline
Russia’s involvement in Syria dates back to the Soviet era,with a long-standing strategic partnership rooted in shared geopolitical interests. Syria served as a key ally for the Soviet Union during the Cold War, providing a foothold in the Mediterranean and a counterbalance to Western influence in the region. This relationship endured the collapse of the Soviet Union, and deepened substantially during the Syrian Civil War.
The 2015 Russian military intervention was pivotal in turning the tide of the conflict in favor of Bashar al-Assad. This intervention wasn’t solely about propping up a regime; it was fundamentally about safeguarding Russia’s strategic assets:
* Tartus Naval Base: Russia’s only naval facility in the Mediterranean Sea, providing crucial access for its Black Sea Fleet.
* Hmeimim Airbase: A key airbase used for supporting Russian military operations and projecting power throughout the region.
The intervention solidified Russia’s position as a major player in the Syrian conflict and demonstrated its willingness to use military force to protect its interests. However, this support came at a cost, fostering resentment among opposition groups and further complicating the already complex geopolitical landscape.
The Fall of Assad and the Rise of Al-Sharaa
The December 2024 ousting of Bashar al-Assad,led by the rebel alliance spearheaded by ahmed al-Sharaa,marked a turning point. Al-Sharaa’s rise to power was significantly backed by Türkiye, which has consistently advocated for a political solution to the Syrian conflict and provided support to Syrian society. Ankara’s approach has been characterized by a pragmatic balancing act, maintaining relations with both Russia and the West while prioritizing its own security concerns, particularly regarding Kurdish militants.
Al-Sharaa’s foreign policy reflects this pragmatic approach. He prioritizes:
* Regional Stability: Recognizing that a stable Syria is essential for regional security.
* Reconstruction: Addressing the massive humanitarian and infrastructural damage caused by the civil war.
* Reduced Iranian Dominance: Limiting the influence of Iran, which has been a key ally of the Assad regime.
This convergence of interests provides a rationale for Russia to engage with the new Syrian leadership, despite its previous support for Assad.
Al-Sharaa’s Moscow Visit: A Recalibration of Power Dynamics
Al-Sharaa’s October 2025 visit to Moscow was a carefully orchestrated event, signaling a desire for continued cooperation while together asserting Syrian sovereignty. Key takeaways from the meeting include:
* Commitment to Existing Agreements: Al-Sharaa assured Putin that Syria would honor existing agreements, including those related to the Tartus and Hmeimim bases.
* Demand for Extradition: The request for the extradition of assad, who fled to Russia after his fall, was a symbolic gesture demonstrating Syria’s intent to hold the former regime accountable. While unlikely to be granted, the request underscores the shift in power dynamics.
* Redefining the Partnership: Al-Sharaa emphasized his intention to redefine the partnership on more equal terms, moving away from the patron-client relationship that defined the Assad era.
– robertmitchell
Al-Sharaa’s visit is a masterclass in diplomatic maneuvering. He understands that completely severing ties with Russia is not feasible, nor is it in Syria’s best interest. However, he’s also acutely aware of the need to diversify Syria’s foreign policy and reduce its dependence on Moscow. The request for Assad’s extradition, while largely symbolic, sends a clear message: this is no longer Assad’s Syria. Russia, facing economic pressures and geopolitical challenges elsewhere, is highly likely to accept this new reality, albeit reluctantly. The key will be finding a balance between maintaining its strategic interests in Syria and accommodating the demands of the new leadership.