Russia Claims Gains in Ukraine as West Doubts Victory Narrative

Moscow continues its efforts to convince the West to abandon Ukraine, asserting that a Russian victory on the battlefield is February 20, 2026, Russian forces have reportedly seized approximately 900 square kilometers and 42 settlements since the beginning of 2026.

The assessment comes from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which has been closely tracking the discrepancies between Russian claims and independent observations.

According to a statement by Colonel General Sergey Rudskoy, Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Russian General Staff, Russian troops have captured 205 square kilometers in the Luhansk region, 3,308 in the Donetsk region, 261 in the Zaporizhzhia region, 175 in the Dnipropetrovsk region, 542 in the Kharkiv region and 223 in the Sumy region. Rudskoy further stated that Russian forces have taken control of 205 settlements across Ukraine during this period.

However, the ISW’s independent assessment paints a different picture. The institute has gathered evidence indicating that Russian forces have actually seized 3,434 square kilometers since January 1, 2026. This suggests that the Russian Ministry of Defense is overstating its advances by 36 percent in Luhansk, 33 percent in Donetsk, 5 percent in Zaporizhzhia, 83 percent in Dnipropetrovsk, 112 percent in Kharkiv, and 6 percent in Sumy.

Rudskoy claimed that elements of the Northern Group of Forces have captured 26 settlements in the Sumy region and 15 settlements, including the city of Vovchansk, in the northern Kharkiv region as of February 20, 2026. He asserted that Russian forces are “creating a security zone” along the international border between Ukraine, and Russia. He also stated that elements of the Western Group of Forces have captured “over 50” settlements in 2025, including Kupiansk – a claim frequently repeated by the Kremlin, but disputed by Russian bloggers.

Rudskoy further claimed that Russian forces have taken 49 settlements in 2025 and control “more than half” of Kostiantynivka. He also stated that elements of the Central Group of Forces have captured 86 settlements in 2025, including major cities like Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Myrnograd. He claimed that elements of the Eastern Group of Forces have captured Huliaipole in 2025 and seized 160 square kilometers and 11 settlements in eastern Zaporizhzhia and southern Dnipropetrovsk regions in January and February 2026. Rudskoy did, however, acknowledge recent Ukrainian counterattacks in the area.

Elements of the Dnipro Group of Forces, Rudskoy stated, have captured 12 settlements in western Zaporizhzhia region since November 2025, and Russian forces have advanced 12 kilometers from the southern and southeastern outskirts of the city of Zaporizhzhia.

The ISW, however, has only been able to verify the capture of 19 settlements and 572 square kilometers of territory in total since the beginning of 2026 – a difference of 23 settlements and 328 square kilometers. The institute has also verified the capture of only 252 settlements throughout 2025, approximately 50 fewer than claimed by Rudskoy, and only nine settlements in the Sumy region and seven in the northern Kharkiv region.

The Russian military’s focus on seizing small rural settlements along the international border, and the presentation of these gains as evidence of Russian military power, appears to be a deliberate strategy to bolster the false narrative of an inevitable Russian victory. This messaging is likely aimed at influencing Western perceptions and potentially weakening support for Ukraine.

The Kremlin is also increasingly cracking down on dissenting voices within its own pro-Russian sphere of influence. The Russian state news agency TASS reported on February 18, 2026, citing sources in Russian law enforcement, that authorities have opened an administrative case against Pavel Gubarev, a former pro-Russian separatist leader and self-proclaimed “people’s governor” of the Donetsk region, for “discrediting the Russian armed forces.” He faces a fine of between 30,000 and 50,000 rubles (approximately $391 to $651).

This repression of former separatist leaders is seen as an attempt to consolidate control over the Russian information space and silence criticism from veterans and others dissatisfied with President Putin’s failure to achieve the goals of the “Russian Spring” and the broader “Novorossiya” project. It also serves to eliminate witnesses to the Kremlin’s falsehoods regarding its initial invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014.

The crackdown on Telegram by Russian authorities suggests this may be part of a wider effort to control the Russian ultra-nationalist information space.

The war in Ukraine is increasingly impacting the Russian population, prompting the Russian Presidential Administration and the United Russia party to invest in mitigation strategies ahead of the State Duma elections in September 2026. Sources within a major Russian news channel told the Russian opposition channel “Meduza” on February 20, 2026, that the political bloc of the Russian Presidential Administration has instructed news channels to write more frequently about “United Russia” in the lead-up to the September 2026 elections.

Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities have reportedly thwarted a Russian attempt to assassinate prominent Ukrainians and destabilize Ukraine. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko announced on February 20, 2026, that Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities have detained ten individuals in connection with a Russian plot to murder prominent Ukrainians.

Kravchenko and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) stated that Russian intelligence had offered the individuals between $100,000 for the assassination of Ukrainian journalists, public figures, the head of a strategically important company, and personnel from the Ukrainian Foreign Legion and the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR), including Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, Andriy Yusov.

Kravchenko noted that the organizers of the plot intended these murders to provoke public outrage in Ukraine, generate negative media coverage of the security situation, and incite further subversive actions. This plot is likely a continuation of Russia’s campaign to conduct sabotage operations in Ukraine, which have included the assassination of Ukrainian public figures, such as former Verkhovna Rada Chairman Andriy Parubiy in August 2025.