Ukraine Conflict: Stakes Rise as Russia Demands Full Control of Donetsk Region
Moscow is demanding the transfer of the remaining portion of the Donetsk region to Russian control, a move Kyiv describes as a “slow-burning bomb,” while Washington attempts to revive stalled negotiations. The situation, as of , is fraught with risk, with analysts warning that Moscow’s insistence on full control of the region may be more than a face-saving measure.
According to a report in The New York Times, surrendering the areas of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk would deprive Ukraine of its most robust defensive line in the east. These areas have been heavily fortified since 2014, prior to the full-scale Russian invasion. Should peace talks collapse after a transfer of land – a scenario many consider plausible – Russia would be strategically positioned to launch a new offensive deeper into Ukraine.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, that the Donetsk region had become “the only remaining item” in peace negotiations requiring attention, noting, “This is still a bridge we haven’t crossed.” However, Moscow disputed this claim the following day, with Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov stating that other issues, including security guarantees proposed by Western countries to Ukraine, also needed to be resolved.
Symbolism and State Propaganda
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Donetsk has been central to Moscow’s efforts to separate and then annex the industrial region in eastern Ukraine, which the Kremlin portrays as historically Russian. Russia has built much of its state propaganda around “saving” the residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, collectively known as the Donbas.
In late 2022, the Kremlin announced the annexation of four Ukrainian regions – Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. However, Russian negotiators now appear to have “backed away from capturing parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions” that Russia does not currently control. If Kyiv retains a significant portion of the Donetsk region, President Putin may face backlash from pro-war nationalist elements within his political base.
The remaining Ukrainian-held territory in the Donetsk region holds symbolic importance, including the city of Slavyansk, where Moscow initiated what it termed a pro-Russian “separatist” uprising in 2014. After 12 years of attempts, Moscow’s failure to capture this city, which Russian propaganda depicts as the cradle of the “Russian Spring,” could exacerbate criticism from hardliners. Capturing the rest of the Donetsk region would also allow Putin to frame the situation as a victory.
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Russia and Eurasia Program, stated that if a deal can be reached at the negotiating table that wasn’t achievable through force, “the question of who won the war and who dictated the terms of its conclusion will be settled.” He added that it may become difficult to portray this as a strategic defeat for Russia and a victory for Ukraine.
Putin, Gabuev suggests, understands that any decision by Kyiv to cede territory will be highly controversial within Ukraine, where soldiers have died for this land for 12 years, and many families have lost loved ones in the fighting in the Donbas region. “People shed blood for this. Many families have lost loved ones in the battles in the Donbas. And now you are giving it up? This is a slow-burning bomb under Ukrainian unity,” he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated his willingness to compromise to end the war, but not at the expense of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. In December, Zelenskyy indicated he was prepared to withdraw troops from parts of the Donetsk region currently held by Kyiv, transforming those areas into a demilitarized zone, provided Russia withdraws its forces from an equivalent area within Donetsk.
“The Anchorage Formula”
When former U.S. President Trump’s attempts to mediate a peace process stalled last summer, his administration proposed a territorial exchange involving Donetsk to try to revive negotiations with the Kremlin. Putin is now reportedly clinging to this deal. His positive response to the idea led to an August summit in Anchorage.
The specifics of the agreement reached between Trump and Putin during that meeting were not publicly disclosed. However, Russian leaders have since insisted that any peace agreement must align with the “spirit of Anchorage” or the “Anchorage formula.” This phrase is widely understood to refer to a deal agreed upon by Putin and Trump in Alaska: Russia would halt the war if Ukraine ceded the remainder of the Donetsk region (and agreed to other non-territorial demands).
Zelenskyy has rejected this proposal, citing the Ukrainian Constitution, which prohibits territorial concessions without a nationwide referendum. The issue resurfaced in a 28-point plan drafted by American negotiators with the participation of Putin’s special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev. This plan proposed that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the portion of the Donetsk region they still control, creating a “neutral demilitarized buffer zone” that would be internationally recognized as Russian territory, but Russian troops would not be allowed on the land.
Having agreed to this proposal with Trump in Alaska, Putin may view any deviation from it as a “bad deal.” “If you are Russia and you were offered this, would you agree that the offer was taken off the table?” said Sam Charap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation. The problem, he added, is that Ukraine never agreed to it.
The Water Issue
Russian-occupied Donetsk also faced a severe water crisis last year and continues to struggle with water shortages. The canal supplying the region with water, known as the North Donets-Donbas Canal, was destroyed at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Its source is located northeast of Slavyansk, in territory still controlled by Ukraine.
Putin was questioned about the water shortage during his “Direct Line” press conference in December. He explained that the main water intake is located in territory “unfortunately still controlled by the enemy.” He stated that the problem could be “fundamentally resolved” once “this territory comes under the control of their armed forces.”
