Russia Ends Nuclear Arms Treaty with US: New START Expires – Risks & Warnings

Jakarta, Indonesia – Russia announced today, February 5, 2026, that it no longer considers itself bound by the limitations on nuclear weapons stipulated in the New START treaty, following its expiration. The move comes with no indication from the United States of a renewal, effectively ending a decades-long era of bilateral constraints on nuclear arsenals.

The New START treaty officially expired today, without any updates from Washington. This leaves both Moscow and Washington free from the restrictions on their “arsenals” that have been in place for over a decade, according to a statement released by the Russian Foreign Ministry, as reported by AFP.

“We assume that the parties to the New START treaty are no longer bound by any reciprocal obligations or declarations in the context of the treaty,” the Russian Foreign Ministry stated.

While declaring its freedom from the treaty’s rules, Russia affirmed its intention to act responsibly and with prudence. However, Moscow warned We see prepared to take “firm retaliatory measures” should its national security be threatened.

In September of last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated his willingness to continue adhering to the limits on warheads for one year, but claimed this offer received no formal response from the United States. A Kremlin aide indicated that Moscow remains open to dialogue on the matter. Former US President Donald Trump reportedly described the offer as a “good idea” at the time, but no further negotiations materialized.

US Senator Marco Rubio stated that Trump would address the issue in the future, emphasizing the US position that any genuine arms control must include China, given its “large and rapidly growing” stockpile.

Signed in 2010 by then-President Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama, New START capped each side at 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads. President Joe Biden extended the treaty for five years in 2021, before relations between the two countries deteriorated following the conflict in Ukraine. Russia subsequently suspended its participation in 2023, though at that time, Moscow stated it would continue to voluntarily abide by the warhead limits.

Warnings and Dangers

The collapse of the treaty has prompted warnings from international figures, including Pope Leo XIV, who urged both nations not to abandon the instrument without ensuring concrete and effective follow-up measures. “I urge you not to leave this instrument without seeking guarantees that it is followed up on concretely and effectively,” the Pope said in a weekly address.

Concerns about an accelerated arms race were voiced by Melissa Parke, Executive Director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). She warned that the lack of New START creates a dangerous situation where nations may develop these weapons without limitation. “Without New START, there is a real danger of increased numbers of warheads, delivery systems, and military exercises, which will pressure other nuclear-armed states to follow suit,” she stated.

The expiration of New START marks the end of an era that began in 1969, when the United States and the Soviet Union initiated the SALT I negotiations. For the first time in decades, there will be no treaty constraining the nuclear arms race, according to the VCDNP.

Monica Duffy Toft, professor of international politics and director of the Center for Strategic Studies at The Fletcher School, explained that New START functioned as a critical risk-reduction mechanism. “By providing transparency into the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, New START has lowered the risk that either side will misinterpret normal military activity as preparation for a nuclear strike,” she said.

According to Mikhail Troitskiy, a specialist in Russian and U.S. Nuclear policy and a visiting professor at Fletcher, arms control agreements like New START depend on deliberate political signaling rather than escalating danger. “Arms control only emerges when both sides want to exchange signals of goodwill because they see a benefit in upgrading their cooperation in areas that go beyond arms control,” he noted. “Heightened risk of conflict outbreak does not by itself bring the states to the arms control negotiation table.”

The treaty’s demise brings a definitive end to nuclear restraint between the two powers and may accelerate a global nuclear arms race. Without the treaty’s verification mechanisms – including on-site inspections, continuous data exchanges, and notifications about missile tests and weapons movements – each side will be forced to rely more heavily on intelligence estimates and worst-case planning.

The New START treaty, signed in April 2010 in Prague, superseded a 2002 treaty that obligated Russia and the United States to reduce their operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads to between 1,700 and 2,200 by the end of 2012. The New START treaty limits were set at 700 deployed intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 1,550 nuclear warheads deployed on those platforms, and 800 launchers.