Stockholm – Russia is intensifying its hybrid threat campaign against Sweden, demonstrating a willingness to accept greater risks in its operations, according to the head of Sweden’s military intelligence. The assessment, delivered by Thomas Nilsson, chief of the Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST), signals a deepening security concern for Sweden and its NATO allies.
“Russia has, in certain cases, stepped up actions and increased its presence – and perhaps with a greater risk appetite – in our vicinity,” Nilsson stated on Tuesday, . The remarks came as MUST presented its annual threat assessment, painting a picture of a deteriorating security landscape, particularly since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in .
Nilsson cautioned that this increased activity is unlikely to abate, regardless of the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine. “They would unfortunately continue doing so,” he said, suggesting a potential escalation driven by “a certain desperation” to achieve its objectives. Conversely, he added, success in Ukraine could also embolden Moscow, leading to “an increased appetite for risk.”
The assessment identifies Russia as the primary “military threat to Sweden and NATO,” with the threat expected to grow as the Kremlin allocates more resources to its armed forces. A key area of concern is the Baltic Sea region, where Russia is actively reinforcing its military presence. “Alongside resources for the war in Ukraine, Russia is reinforcing its resources in the Baltic Sea region, as it is a strategically very important region for Russia, both economically and militarily,” MUST noted in its review.
This build-up in the Baltic Sea is already underway, though the speed of its progression will be influenced by several factors, including the trajectory of the war in Ukraine, the performance of the Russian economy and its relationship with China. The interplay of these elements will determine the scale and pace of Russia’s military reinforcement in the region.
Beyond conventional military build-up, the Swedish intelligence agency is particularly concerned about the rise in hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia. These tactics, encompassing a range of activities from disinformation campaigns to sabotage, are designed to destabilize and undermine Western nations. According to Nilsson, these activities are currently Russia’s primary method of exerting influence in the region.
The annual review highlights a worrying trend of increasing recklessness in Russian actions, citing examples such as sabotage and airspace violations involving aircraft, and drones. “We have seen sabotage carried out against our neighboring countries, Poland and the Baltic countries, and We find reports from Germany,” Nilsson explained. While Sweden has not yet been a direct target of such attacks, the possibility of becoming one is considered increasingly likely.
The most immediate threat of sabotage is believed to be directed at military support provided to Ukraine by Sweden and other NATO members. However, the potential for attacks on critical infrastructure, such as energy and communications networks, cannot be ruled out. “Such things could, of course, become a target,” Nilsson warned.
The assessment also points to Russia’s efforts to exploit divisions within NATO, aiming to weaken the alliance’s cohesion. This strategy, known as hybrid warfare, seeks to sow discord and undermine trust among member states. MUST believes that Russian “security-threatening activities against Europe will likely increase in frequency, scope and risk-taking until 2030.”
The deteriorating security situation underscores the importance of Sweden’s recent decision to join NATO, a move that has been met with strong opposition from Moscow. Sweden formally applied for membership in , following a dramatic shift in public and political opinion prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The country’s accession to the alliance is expected to significantly enhance its security posture and contribute to regional stability.
The Swedish intelligence agency’s assessment serves as a stark reminder of the evolving threat landscape in Europe and the need for continued vigilance and preparedness in the face of Russian aggression. The increased risk appetite demonstrated by Moscow suggests a willingness to challenge the existing international order and pursue its geopolitical objectives through increasingly assertive and destabilizing means.
