Russia-Ukraine War: Why “No Victory = Russia’s End” is a False Premise
“`html
Russian Analyst Argues ukraine war is Catastrophic for Russia’s Ethnonational Core
Table of Contents
A Russian analyst, identified only as savvin, contends that the war in Ukraine is not serving Russia’s interests and is, in fact, detrimental to the preservation of its ethnonational identity. His analysis challenges prevailing Kremlin narratives and suggests that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could ultimately be beneficial for the future of the Russian people.
Shifting economic and Demographic Realities
Savvin points to significant changes in Russia’s economic and demographic landscape. He notes that russia is no longer reliant on grain exports, having transitioned to an economy focused on oil and gas – resources primarily sourced from within the Russian Federation, not Ukraine. This contrasts with historical dependencies. Moreover, the proportion of ethnic Russians within the population of the russian Federation has increased substantially, rising to over 70% currently, compared to 44% a century ago. Statista provides data on Russia’s ethnic composition.
The War as a Demographic and political Threat
Despite these demographic shifts, Savvin argues the war in Ukraine is actively undermining the “Russian ethnonational core.” He cites mounting battlefield losses, a declining birthrate, and increased immigration of individuals from culturally different backgrounds as contributing factors.He directly refutes the idea that Russia’s survival depends on defeating Ukraine, labeling such claims as “out of date ideological scheme[s]” and “openly absurd and thus deadly.”
Kremlin’s Historical Role as a Destructive Force
Savvin is highly critical of the current Russian regime, asserting that those promoting the war are the same forces that have historically been “the most odious enemies of the Russian peoples.” He traces this antagonism back to 1917 and claims it continues to the present day. He accuses the Kremlin of using outdated thinking to justify what he describes as a “bestial and insane war.”
Defeat as a Path to renewal
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Savvin believes a loss in Ukraine will not lead to Russia’s destruction. Instead, he posits that it could be the catalyst for removing the current regime, which he views as the greatest threat to the Russian people and the key to Russia’s future recovery. This perspective offers a stark contrast to the narratives promoted by the Kremlin regarding the necessity of achieving victory in Ukraine.